Iran peace deadline expires with no deal

Joseph Krauss, MDT/AP

The deal U.S. President Donald Trump signed at Versailles in June set an ambitious 60-day deadline for ending the war with Iran and resolving the dispute over Tehran’s nuclear program. That deadline expired Monday, with the two sides further apart than before.

Talks have focused on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the U.S. blockade on Iran — steps that were supposed to follow the interim agreement. There is no sign of compromise over the strait or that detailed nuclear negotiations have begun.

Washington has no good exit from the war it launched with Israel. Accepting Iran’s demands would effectively give Tehran control of a waterway that carried a fifth of globally traded oil and gas before the conflict. Escalation, however, would consume more advanced U.S. missile interceptors, disrupt the world economy and raise fuel prices ahead of congressional elections. Both sides are waiting for the other to blink.

The June Memorandum of Understanding called for an end to military operations and a permanent agreement within 60 days. It also provided for reopening Hormuz but gave Iran a poorly defined role in facilitating traffic, potentially including fees after the deadline. Tehran has used that language to claim control.

A week later, Iran fired on vessels using a U.S.-overseen route along Oman’s coast designed to bypass Tehran’s control. The U.S. struck Iran, which retaliated against Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain, all hosts to American forces. Trump then restored the blockade and canceled waivers allowing Iranian oil exports. Each side accused the other of violating the agreement, of which little now remains.

Fighting eventually subsided, and an associated truce between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon has largely held, despite Israel’s occupation of large southern areas. Iran says direct negotiations stopped in June, although intermediaries continue to relay messages. Trump insists talks continue and has occasionally claimed progress while stepping back from threatened major strikes.

Pakistan, which helped broker the agreement, hopes the deadline can be extended. But Iran has hardened its position. It demands an end to the blockade, withdrawal of U.S. forces from around Iran and reparations for damage caused since the U.S.-Israeli offensive began Feb. 28. Even then, Tehran says it would retain control of Hormuz and possibly charge fees under an arrangement with Oman.

Iran-backed Houthis have also resumed attacks on Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, threatening an alternative trade route used to ease pressure from the Hormuz closure.

Trump rejects Iran’s terms, says Tehran should pay reparations and claims Washington controls the strait. His strategy rests on sanctions and the blockade forcing Iran’s leaders to yield. Iran’s economy has been battered, inflation has surged and the crisis could reignite anti-government protests like those crushed in January.

Neither outcome offers Trump the victory he promised. Iran can absorb economic pain while using disruption in Hormuz as leverage; Washington can sustain pressure but cannot reopen the waterway cheaply. The result is a costly stalemate that diplomacy has so far failed to break.

Yet pressure works both ways. Hormuz traffic, which briefly increased after the June deal, has fallen again to a fraction of prewar levels. Fuel and goods prices will rise further as the impasse continues, spreading economic damage far beyond the Middle East. The formal deadline has passed, but the clock is still ticking for both sides. [Abridged]