Netanyahu’s biggest reelection concern is his own supporters

Josef Federman, MDT/AP

As Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seeks reelection, his main concern isn’t his political rivals. It’s his biggest supporters.

A series of small, pro-Netanyahu parties are competing in the run-up to the Oct. 27 vote. But instead of strengthening the Israeli leader, these parties – including hard-line blocs led by polarizing Cabinet ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich – risk weakening his chances for reelection by splitting the vote among Netanyahu’s base.

The election is largely a referendum on Netanyahu’s nearly uninterrupted 17-year rule and his handling of a turbulent period marked by mass protests, Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attacks and nearly three years of war. A victory would mark a comeback for the leader, while a loss would likely end the reign of a man who has shaped Israeli politics for three decades.

With his legacy on the line, Netanyahu is imploring his erstwhile allies to unite into larger parties more likely to enter parliament.

“When we unite, we win. When we split up, we lose,” Netanyahu told Channel 14, an unofficial mouthpiece for the prime minister.

Israeli voters choose between political parties, not individual candidates. Parties receiving the most votes secure the most seats in the 120-member parliament. Any party that musters 3.25% of the vote wins representation, meaning more than a dozen parties can sit in parliament.

No single party has ever captured the parliamentary majority needed to form a government. Instead, a party leader – usually the head of the largest party – forms a coalition with smaller partners to secure a 61-seat majority. Netanyahu currently heads a coalition of religious and ultranationalist parties.

Opinion polls indicate that Netanyahu and members of his outgoing coalition face public unhappiness. The government’s popularity has suffered following the Hamas attacks – the deadliest in Israel’s history – and the inconclusive wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran.

Now Netanyahu’s prospects could be further weakened by divisions in his hard-line base. Two parties that ran together in 2022 – Smotrich’s Religious Zionism and Ben-Gvir’s Jewish Power – have rejected Netanyahu’s calls to merge again because of rocky relations between the two men.

Meanwhile, smaller parties led by former members of Netanyahu’s Likud party and another list formed by a hard-line retired general are competing for the same voters. They are differentiated more by their leaders’ personalities than their ideologies.

If any fail to enter parliament, their votes will be lost and Netanyahu’s reelection prospects dimmed. Small parties’ failure to cross the threshold contributed to his defeat in 2021, while rivalries among his opponents aided his return to power in 2022.

Netanyahu has therefore urged his ideological allies to join larger blocs. That would require individual sacrifices but improve their chances of entering parliament and joining another Netanyahu-led government. One small party agreed Wednesday to be folded into Smotrich’s list.

The parties have until Sept. 8 to consolidate, withdraw or continue alone. Their decisions could seal Netanyahu’s fate.

With time running out, he has intensified his appeals with increasingly alarmist language. On Channel 14, Netanyahu told a cheering audience that only he could defeat Hamas and prevent a Palestinian state. He warned that victory by his opponents, whom he derisively calls “the left,” would be disastrous.

“The left is ready,” he said. “If we don’t unite, we will lose.”