September casino revenue falls 1.2% as analysts trim forecasts

Macau’s gross gaming revenue fell 1.2% year-on-year to MOP18.06 billion in September, the lowest monthly total of 2026, according to figures released by the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) on October 1.

The result marked a fourth consecutive month of annual declines and was 17.5% below August’s MOP21.89 billion, underscoring softer casino demand ahead of the National Day Golden Week holiday.

Revenue for the first nine months reached MOP187.12 billion, up 3.2% from a year earlier. However, accumulated growth slowed from 3.7% through August, while the nine-month total remained about 15.1% below the corresponding period in 2019.

September’s result was broadly in line with Citigroup’s revised MOP18 billion forecast, World Casino Directory reported. The bank had lowered its estimate after observing weaker premium-mass table activity.

Following the release, J.P. Morgan cut its full-year revenue forecast to MOP249 billion, implying growth of just 1% over 2025 and recovery to 85% of pre-pandemic levels, agencies reported.

The bank said September’s average daily revenue of MOP602 million was the weakest since September 2024. It remained uncertain whether the slowdown reflected China’s recent tax enforcement, unusually pronounced seasonality before Golden Week, or uneven mainland economic conditions.

J.P. Morgan now expects October revenue to fall 6% year-on-year to MOP22.6 billion and forecasts a similar annual decline for the fourth quarter.

Seaport Research Partners also linked softer demand to weaker mainland economic conditions and enforcement of taxes on offshore trusts affecting wealthy individuals with overseas assets.

After third-quarter revenue fell 3.8% year-on-year, Seaport expects a further 5% contraction in the final quarter. Analyst Vitaly Umansky’s forecast still envisages 2.3% growth for 2026, although he cautioned: “Our models are under review.”

The weaker gaming figures contrasted with stronger holiday traffic. Macau recorded approximately 415,000 visitor arrivals during the mainland’s September 25–27 Mid-Autumn Festival break, up 19.5% year-on-year, according to official sources.

September’s outcome leaves the industry entering Golden Week with positive cumulative growth but a more cautious outlook, as analysts reassess whether holiday demand can offset recent weakness in spending among casino customers heading into the final quarter.