Analysts forecast slower April GGR growth after strong March

Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) is expected to rise 10% to 12% year-over-year in April, though analysts warn that momentum may be slowing after strong March results.

Casinos posted MOP22.61 billion (USD2.8 billion) in GGR in March, exceeding analyst expectations by 4% to 5%, supported by high VIP win rates and steady demand despite geopolitical tensions, according to multiple firms.

March’s figure marked a 15% increase from MOP19.66 billion in March 2025 and a 9.6% gain from February’s MOP20.62 billion, according to the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau. For the first quarter, GGR reached about MOP65.6 billion, up 14% year-over-year.

JP Morgan analysts described March’s results as “better than expected,” citing elevated VIP holds and rising weekly trends. They pegged VIP revenue at MOP18.1 billion, up 25% year-over-year, and mass-market revenue at MOP47.8 billion, up 11% year-over-year.

CLSA analyst Jeffrey Kiang attributed the stronger-than-expected results partly to gaming luck but emphasized “solid demand” despite geopolitical tensions. Seaport Research analyst Vitaly Umansky said premium play drove the upside, though base mass revenue remained 15% below 2019 levels, with overnight stays at 75% to 80% of pre-COVID norms.

For April, JP Morgan projects MOP20.7 billion, up 10% year-over-year, or 88% of 2019 levels. Seaport Research expects 12% growth to roughly MOP21.1 billion, easing to 8.2% in May. CLSA forecasts MOP20.9 billion, up 11% year-over-year, broadly in line with consensus.

Looking ahead, JP Morgan expects 7% quarterly growth in the second quarter but only 2% for the full year due to tougher comparisons.

Seaport projects 7% full-year growth – 9.8% in the first half and 4.4% in the second half – contingent on liquidity, visa policies, and recovery of base-mass play, unless player reinvestment and agent commissions improve, which Umansky said is unlikely without intervention from the MSAR government.

Umansky stressed that sustained growth in the Macau’s gaming sector depends on recovering base-mass play, particularly from higher-value overnight visitors. He added that as long as liquidity channels remain open, Macau should continue to meet gaming demand, especially at the high end, though overall growth is expected to slow.