Analysts: GGR set for September rebound after three-month slide

Gross gaming revenue (GGR) is expected to return to year-on-year growth in September after falling for a third consecutive month in August, although analysts diverge over the strength of the recovery.

CLSA forecasts growth of just 0.3%, well below the market’s median estimate of 9.5%, while JPMorgan expects revenue to rise about 7% to MOP19.64 billion. Seaport Research Partners appears more optimistic, projecting a 10% increase to about MOP20.12 billion.

The institutions’ forecasts reflect differing assessments of underlying demand after Macau’s casinos endured a weaker summer performance.

In August, GGR fell 1.2% year on year to MOP21.89 billion, missing market expectations for growth of roughly 1% to 2%. The result extended a recent soft patch that followed the FIFA World Cup, held from June 11 to July 19 across the United States, Mexico and Canada.

JPMorgan analysts Daniel Politzer, Samuel Nielsen and Michael Hirsh said August’s sequential improvement exceeded the typical seasonal increase of about 4%. However, they cautioned that it “more so reflects a soft July than a strong August.”

The analysts estimated that VIP GGR fell 5% year on year in August, while mass-market and slot revenue were broadly flat. They also noted that daily revenue momentum slowed during the month.

“While we don’t view results as bad, there’s also not much to get excited about,” the JPMorgan team said.

Separately, Seaport senior analyst Vitaly Umansky described August revenue as “weaker than initially expected,” saying there was little evidence of pent-up demand after the World Cup. Seaport stated that the tournament had weighed on premium-mass and VIP business, as well as junket-agent activity, during June and July.

The firm said September would benefit from a favorable comparison with the same month last year, when a typhoon affected operations.

September is typically a weaker month and remains vulnerable to storms, it said. The expected year-on-year increase is therefore largely a result of the lower comparison base rather than a clear acceleration in demand.

The brokerage expects average daily GGR of MOP671 million in September, down 5.1% sequentially from MOP706 million in August.

CLSA took a more cautious view, arguing that although typhoon-related factors will support the comparison. Its forecast of 0.3% growth is significantly below the broader market expectation.

JPMorgan expects September revenue of MOP19.64 billion, equivalent to about 89% of the MOP22.1 billion recorded in September 2019, before the pandemic. Seaport’s MOP20.12 billion forecast would put monthly revenue at about 91% of the pre-pandemic level.

Official figures from the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) show that Macau generated MOP169.05 billion in GGR during the first eight months of 2026. That represents an average of MOP21.13 billion a month, up 3.7% from the same period last year and equal to 85.3% of revenue in the corresponding period of 2019.

For the third quarter as a whole, both Seaport and JPMorgan expect a slight year-on-year contraction. JPMorgan forecasts a 1% decline to MOP61.80 billion, while Seaport projects a 0.5% drop.