Author: Jorge Costa Oliveira
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We should fear general AI and, above all, superintelligence
In the coming years, we should witness the emergence of numerous artificial intelligence (AI) agents designed for specific tasks or areas – IT/programming, healthcare, chemistry, finance, ... -
State capitalism with American characteristics
In the current Trump 2.0 administration, beyond the usual fiscal and budgetary measures, economic stimulus packages, and regulatory agencies in sectors such as finance, energy, and ... -
Major changes in the world’s population through 2100
The highly regarded Pew Research Center recently released a concise analysis of projections for some of the major changes in the world’s population through 2100, based ... -
To regulate or not to regulate AI
There is no doubt that Artificial Intelligence (AI) will revolutionize industries, supercharge scientific research, and make many aspects of life and work more efficient. Yet, there ... -
A world of Tyrrel Corporations?
In “Blade Runner”, a 1982 science fiction noir directed by Ridley Scott, the futuristic vision of Los Angeles in 2019 is that of a post-ecocide society, ... -
The ‘big, beautiful’ Trumpist swamp
Presenting himself as an outsider challenging the political establishment, Trump set out to “drain the swamp” [in Washington, D.C.]. In Trump’s first administration (2017–2021), there was ... -
The US–EU trade pre-deal and the law of the jungle
International trade law is governed by global multilateral agreements under the WTO and a multitude of regional multilateral agreements (EU, USMCA, Mercosur, AFTA, CPTPP, CIS, AfCFTA, ... -
Another Trump venture – trading in pardons
Under Presidents Obama and Biden, commutations of sentence far outnumbered pardons – 1,715 to 212 under Obama, 4,165 to 80 under Biden – and both administrations ... -
CGOs in the brave new era of geoeconomics
Jorge Costa Oliveira The global economic order is shifting, and one of the most significant changes lies in the growing relevance of geoeconomics – the field ... -
The United States on the road to fascism
To compare with what’s currently happening in the U.S., I asked an AI bot to list the typical characteristics of fascist political regimes. Here is the ... -
Who will buy $9 trillion in US Treasury Bonds?
For decades, U.S. federal governments have grown accustomed to operating with recurring budget deficits, expanding public debt from $7 trillion in 2000 to $36 trillion in ... -
Orwellian Newspeak in Trump’s rhetoric
Trump’s increasingly authoritarian trajectory has sparked fears of a drift toward a society resembling the one depicted by G. Orwell in “1984.” One of the core ... -
The unexpected rise in Chinese investment in Europe
A recent report by the Rhodium Group and MERICS states that, for the first time since 2016, Chinese outbound foreign direct investment (OFDI) in the EU ... -
Portugal-China relations on the 25th anniversary of Macau’s handover
The transition of Macau to Chinese sovereignty was a success because both parties worked diligently to achieve it. The Chinese State-Party elite aimed for a “smooth ... -
Being green like Norway
Like other European countries, Norway has adopted a strategy for a low-carbon economy by 2050, with emission reduction targets that are even more ambitious than those ... -
Go die far away
The Israeli government is not interested in peace, does not want an agreement to free hostages and end the war in Gaza, nor does it want ... -
The paper bear
Russia has 5,977 nuclear warheads, of which 1,500 are past their expiration date, according to estimates from the Federation of American Scientists. Of the remaining 4,500, ... -
USA, China, decoupling, and the ‘little guy’
As the years go by, we realize that decoupling does not (and will not) occur in all areas simultaneously; it tends to occur in a fragmented ... -
For whom the media bells do not toll
Data from various reputable organizations – the Global Conflict Tracker of the Council on Foreign Relations, the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), the ... -
Overcapacity of Chinese EVs and their penetration into Europe
U.S. officials have been insisting on the need for China to curb the “industrial overcapacity” of photovoltaic products, electric batteries, and electric vehicles (EVs), whose exports ... -
Illiberal democracy in India and the West turning a blind eye
India is the “largest democracy in the world” (970 million voters in the current elections). According to the Democracy Index 2023 by the unsuspecting Economist’s Intelligence ... -
Russia dependency on China, war and peace in Europe
Over the last decade, we have witnessed a significant shift in Russia’s positioning. Part of this repositioning stems from the theories of “Russian exceptionalism,” deeply imbued ... -
Sanctions on banks facilitating Russia’s war machine
The limited effectiveness of various measures, including sanctions, to curb the supply of dual-use goods (and other critical items) to Russia’s war machine led the U.S. ... -
The end of secularism in India?
Since the era of Ashoka (250 BC), with pauses during the Mughal era, there has been religious freedom and a separation between the state and religious ... -
Do not force Southeast Asian countries to choose sides
Against a historical backdrop where the U.S. (and much of the West) have aimed to contain China’s rise, starting in Asia, the analysis of China’s and ... -
Main reasons for national pride in China and the US
Many surveys show that the majority of citizens take pride in their countries, but few have examined the main reasons why people are proud of their ... -
Lessons to be drawn from Trump’s betrayal of European allies
On February 10, in one of those remarks bordering on the outrageous, the candidate who the Republican Party, also known as the Grand Old Party (GOP), ... -
China’s GDP grows 5.2%, stock market shares fall
According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics, in 2023 the Chinese GDP grew by 5.2%, exceeding the government’s forecast of about 5% (3% in 2022). In ... -
Exports to Russia through the back door
Direct exports from China to Russia increased significantly after the beginning of the war in Ukraine (+64.2% since 2021, of which +46.9% in 2023). Turkey’s exports ... -
Attacks on navigation in the Red Sea, more inflation in Europe
In recent weeks, invoking solidarity with the Palestinians of Gaza, the Yemeni Houthi Ansarallah movement has attacked cargo ships “linked to Israel” off the coast of ... -
The resounding success of American ‘friendshoring’
Following a 2021 executive order from the U.S. President, instructing his administration to conduct a review of the country’s key supply chains, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, ... -
Reduction of fossil fuels in road transport
According to the IEA, in its World Energy Outlook 2023, energy demand in transportation increased by 4% in 2022, with oil accounting for 90% of this ... -
Phase out of fossil fuels – do as the EU and the US say…
Several countries in the Beyond Oil & Gas Alliance and the High Ambition Coalition for Nature and People, as well as NGOs, have been campaigning to ... -
COP28, pledges, STEPS, and realistic public policies
As this article is being written, COP28 is still in progress, with some tangible results – such as the agreement to create a Climate Impact and ... -
The environmental (ir)responsibility of Russia and the Arctic Route
According to an article published in the December 14, 2021 issue of Science magazine, the Arctic is warming four times faster than the rest of the ...
