El Niño peak looms, testing drainage and climate response

[Photo: Yuki Lei]

El Niño is expected to peak by early next year, bringing wetter summers and testing Macau’s drainage and climate response capacity, according to a meteorological group.

The Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau (SMG) has issued a statement noting that the equatorial central and eastern Pacific entered an El Niño state in May, which is expected to continue developing and gradually strengthening through summer and autumn, with the potential to evolve into a “strong to super-strong” El Niño event.

El Niño, a phenomenon in which sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific become unusually warm every few years, is one of the key climate drivers influencing global weather patterns.

The bureau explained that El Niño typically occurs every two to seven years, with individual events lasting nine to 12 months on average, and is classified as an El Niño event when the NINO3.4 index remains 0.5 degrees Celcius or more above normal for at least five months.

This year’s El Niño has the potential to develop into a strong to super-strong event comparable to the classic strong El Niño years of 1997/1998 and 2015/2016, with the peak possibly occurring at the end of this year.

According to a report by public broadcaster TDM featuring an interview with the Meteorological Society, El Niño is expected to cause typhoon paths to shift eastward, and the total number of typhoons this year could be lower than last year’s 14, though the possibility of a strong typhoon affecting southern China cannot be ruled out.

The El Niño is expected to peak between December and January. As explained in the report, warmer air can hold more moisture, and when that capacity increases, rainfall can become heavier and more concentrated, leading to an uneven distribution of rainfall – a phenomenon likened to a sponge that absorbs more water but does not necessarily release it evenly each month.

The group reportedly also raised concerns over whether Macau’s ageing infrastructure, particularly its drainage systems designed under past climate conditions, can cope with today’s extreme weather – and whether upgrades and response times can keep pace as temperatures continue to rise over the next decade.

In a lighter moment, the report also featured a brief viral clip in which one young interviewee, when asked how he coped with the hot and humid conditions, responded: “This year I’ve had three ice creams – last year I only had one, because it’s so hot.”