JP Morgan, Citi report strong premium mass recovery

Macau’s premium mass gaming market remains robust, showing signs of recovery despite some seasonal softness, according to recent analyst comments from JP Morgan and Citigroup.

JP Morgan analysts estimate that gross gaming revenue (GGR) reached MOP4.45 billion during the first seven days of September, averaging MOP635 million daily. This figure reflects an 11% drop compared with July and August figures, which averaged MOP714 million daily.

Analysts DS Kim, Selina Li, and Lindsey Qian explained on Monday that the decline was “due to seasonality,” with September typically being one of Macau’s weakest months for GGR.

Despite softer run-rates, JP Morgan forecasts full-month GGR growth of 10% to 13% year-on-year, projecting between MOP19 billion and MOP19.5 billion for September. This would translate to a daily run rate of between MOP630 million and MOP650 million.

The analysts also noted, “The print still suggests double-digit growth from last September’s MOP575 million per day, indicating the sequential slowdown is within normal seasonality.”

If realized, this would push third-quarter GGR to a post-pandemic high of MOP63 billion to MOP64 billion, marking the strongest quarter in 23 quarters with 14% to 15% year-on-year growth and 3% to 4% quarter-on-quarter growth.

Meanwhile, Citigroup’s latest monthly premium mass gaming survey, conducted by analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau, revealed resilience in the market despite an 18% year-on-year decline in player numbers for September 2025.

“Perhaps because we conducted our September 2025 survey right after school started, the number of premium mass players seen fell 18% year-on-year,” the Citi analysts wrote. The survey recorded 500 premium mass players, down from 610 the previous year.

Despite fewer players, total wagers increased 3% year-on-year to HKD12.3 million, supported by a 27% rise in average wager per player to HKD24,550 from HKD19,389 in September 2024.

Regarding ‘whale’ activity, Citi’s survey documented 27 high rollers placing bets of HKD100,000 or more, compared to 21 in September 2024. The standout player of the month was observed at the Venetian High Limit Area, wagering HKD2 million at a reserved table.

“This is the fifth time over the past six months that the wager by the player of the month exceeded HKD1 million,” Citi said.

Other notable whales included a HKD400,000 player at Wynn Palace’s Chairman Club and a HKD300,000 player at City of Dreams High Limit Area.

Thanks to the standout player of the month at the Venetian High Limit Area, Sands China ranked number one in Citi’s premium mass September survey, with a 35% market share in total premium mass wagers, followed by Galaxy Entertainment Group with 20%.

Citi noted that MGM China Holdings may gain market share through creative marketing initiatives, such as promotions involving Pop Mart’s Labubu collectibles and lucky draws offering a Rolex Daytona watch to players wagering HKD5,000 or more on side bets.

The analysts commented, “These latest moves are cost-effective ways that should help MGM at least defend – if not gain – market share, despite the ramp-up of Sands China’s Londoner Grand and Galaxy’s Capella.”