Citi: GGR on track for MOP22 billion in March

Citigroup analysts forecast that Macau’s gaming revenue will climb 12% year-on-year in March to MOP22 billion (USD2.75 billion). In a recently released note, Citi’s George Choi and Timothy Chau reported that gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the first 22 days of the month hit about MOP15.6 billion ($1.94 billion), with a daily run rate of MOP721 million in the most recent week.

This daily run rate figure comes in at 3% above the prior week and 14% higher than last year.

The analysts maintained their full-month projection of average daily GGR at MOP711 million for the rest of March, and highlighted entertainment as a key stabilizer.

“We believe the concerts by ATEEZ at the Venetian Arena and Mark Tuan (GOT7) at Studio City Event Centre this coming weekend could potentially help Macau sustain a largely stable GGR run rate,” Choi and Chau stated.

The memo also pointed to continued strength in the premium mass segment. VIP volumes dipped 10-12% month-on-month, with mass GGR flat or down 0-2%.

Still, Citi sees limited downside, expecting the daily average to meet forecasts.

In a separate memo, Citi contextualized March’s perceived weakness post-Chinese New Year. “March has always been an ordinary month in the calendar (on a GGR/day basis),” the analysts noted, blaming a “recency bias” after holiday peaks.

Despite fewer visitors, average wagers per player climbed 17% year-on-year to HKD20,689, Citi noted. The bank forecasts low-to-mid teens GGR growth for the first quarter and remains bullish on Macau gaming.

Moreover, the analysts cautioned that market sentiment on operators like Sands China is “overly pessimistic on the prospects of its EBITDA recovery quarter on quarter,” following recent share drops.