Seaport: GGR expected to rebound in August, September

Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) is expected to return to year-on-year growth in August and accelerate further in September as demand normalizes following disruption from the 2026 FIFA World Cup, according to Seaport Research Partners.

Data released Saturday by the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) showed Macau’s casinos generated MOP20.26 billion in gaming revenue in July, down 8.4% from a year earlier but up 9.4% from June. The monthly improvement reflected a recovery after business in June was weighed down by the World Cup and softer demand from premium-mass and VIP players.

In a note published Sunday, Seaport said gaming volumes strengthened during the second half of July after the tournament ended on July 19, although demand was “modestly impacted” by Typhoon Noul, which passed north of Hong Kong on July 25-26.

“We forecast August GGR to be up 4.5% year on year, driven by a rebound in demand, with some customers coming back after deferring trips during the World Cup,” senior analyst Vitaly Umansky wrote.

He added that September GGR is expected to increase by about 11% year on year.

Umansky forecasts August GGR will reach approximately MOP23.16 billion, equivalent to average daily revenue of MOP747 million. He also projects third-quarter GGR to rise 1.8% year on year, followed by 3.2% growth in the fourth quarter.

Seaport said mass-market gaming outperformed the VIP segment in July, although VIP hold was relatively strong compared with recent months. Even so, it remained below the level recorded in July 2025.

The brokerage also noted uneven performance among Macau’s casino operators. It estimated that Melco Resorts & Entertainment saw the sharpest decline in market share in the second quarter, partly because of a low VIP hold rate, followed by Wynn Macau. By contrast, Galaxy Entertainment Group saw a notable gain, helped in part by a higher hold rate, while Sands China also registered a more modest increase.

Seaport said that easier liquidity, more supportive visa policies and a stronger renminbi should help boost higher-end gaming demand by improving customer spending power.

Even so, it said Macau’s recovery remains driven mainly by premium players, while the overnight base-mass segment is still well below pre-pandemic levels. The brokerage estimates that overnight base-mass gaming revenue remains about 30% below 2019 levels.

Seaport also cautioned that the durability of Macau’s gaming recovery remains uncertain. It pointed to China’s economic outlook, geopolitical risks, possible restrictions on money flows or travel to Macau, adverse weather and a slower-than-expected rebound in the base-mass segment as key downside risks.