2040 population forecast factors in skilled talent influx

[Photo: Yuki Lei]

The Macau Urban Master Plan draft projects a total population of approximately 783,000 by 2040, with authorities acknowledging that the figure includes the resident population as well as future skilled professionals expected to be attracted to the city.

According to the first amendment draft of the urban master plan, the projected total population for Macau in 2040 has been revised downward to approximately 783,000, reflecting a reduction of around 25,000 from the earlier forecast of 808,000, based on the latest Macau Population Projection 2022-2041 study.

Speaking at a recent association consultation session on the plan’s draft amendment, deputy director of the Land and Urban Construction Bureau (DSSCU) Mak Tat Io explained that the adjustment reflects the projected decline in the city’s population growth, noting that the figure includes both Macau’s permanent residents and future imported “talent” and other non-permanent resident populations.

According to official figures, Macau’s total population currently stands at approximately 688,000, supported by a labor force of 490,000, which includes some 383,000 local resident workers and roughly 109,000 non-resident employees. Since the implementation of the Legal Regime for Talent Introduction, cumulative data as of mid-2026 shows that more than 900 high-caliber applicants from across the globe have been placed on the “Recommended Talent Admission List.”

Notably, the draft amendment also revises Macau’s development positioning and urban structure layout, incorporating the vision of establishing an “international hub for high-caliber talent” into the city’s development strategy, with the total land area projected to reach approximately 36.96 square kilometers.

Addressing concerns over balancing development goals with supporting infrastructure, Mak explained that public facility zones under the master plan are designated for large-scale city-level amenities, such as the International Integrated Tourism and Cultural Zone, while community facilities, including education, sports, and social welfare, are distributed across residential areas.

He noted that the reduction in residential land is intended to accommodate an increased supply of land for diversified industries, corresponding to the projected population decline. Mak expressed confidence that the city’s residential facilities would align with population projections, adding that future cooperation with the Guangdong-Macau In-Depth Cooperation Zone in Hengqin would provide additional living spaces for Macau residents.

“Zone A is expected to relieve population pressure on the Macau Peninsula,” authorities noted, adding that New Urban Zone A – positioned as Macau’s eastern gateway facing the Pearl River Estuary – is planned to become a new urban landmark. The development is not limited to cultural facilities but may also accommodate mixed-use complexes integrating commercial, dining, and entertainment functions.

As part of the plan, a coastal green belt will be established along the perimeter of Zone A, with authorities aiming to open up the waterfront to the public to the greatest extent possible through urban planning. They also indicated that a feasibility study would be conducted on the potential construction of a cycle track connecting the Macau Peninsula to Zone A.