Jon Gambrell, MDT/AP
One month into their war with Iran, the United States and Israel face an opponent that behaves less like a conventional state and more like an insurgent force, using limited resources to inflict maximum pain. Despite sustained airstrikes from two of the world’s most advanced militaries, Iran continues to torment its neighbors and Israel with missiles and drones while keeping leverage over the global economy through threats to shipping.
Iran’s most potent advantage remains its influence over traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, through which a large share of the world’s oil and gas once flowed. That choke point is a central pillar of Tehran’s strategy and mirrors tactics adopted by its regional proxies. Meanwhile, Iran’s heavily sanctioned economy is somewhat insulated from the disruption it is causing, limiting the domestic impact of soaring energy prices that are shaking global markets.
The closure and intimidation around the strait have pushed oil prices higher, hit stock markets, and raised the cost of goods worldwide, creating political pressure on U.S. President Donald Trump. The administration faces a difficult choice: seek a ceasefire, accept limited gains, or escalate to force the waterway open. Trump says talks are progressing, a claim Iran denies. If negotiations fail, Washington and Israel could intensify military action. Trump has already ordered additional troops to the region and set a new deadline for Iran to reopen the strait, warning of further strikes if it does not.
Yet Iran has proven resilient. Despite heavy losses to its air defenses and conventional forces, Tehran retains underground bases, mobile missile systems, and dispersed launch capabilities. Its “shoot and scoot” tactics mirror those used by insurgent groups, including Yemen’s Houthi rebels and Iran-backed militias in Iraq, which have survived years of air campaigns. Iran’s mountainous geography further complicates efforts to neutralize its forces.
The strategy reflects a recognition that Iran cannot defeat the United States militarily. As Mideast security analyst Shukriya Bradost wrote, Tehran’s objective is to survive the conflict long enough to claim victory.
Still, Iran faces serious internal challenges. U.S. and Israeli leaders have suggested popular discontent could destabilize the regime. Nationwide protests earlier this year were met with a brutal crackdown, and there are no clear signs of renewed uprising as airstrikes continue. The Revolutionary Guard’s Basij militia remains active, though signs of strain are emerging, including reports that children as young as 12 are being recruited.
Leadership questions also loom. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has not been seen publicly since assuming power, and U.S. officials say he was wounded. Iran’s military units appear fragmented, and any ceasefire that fails to satisfy hard-liners could deepen internal fractures.
Despite this, U.S. military pressure has not yet produced decisive results. Analysts warn that overwhelming force may not compel Iran to negotiate. As the Soufan Center cautioned, Washington cannot assume it can secure through diplomacy what it has not achieved on the battlefield.
For now, Iran’s strategy hinges on endurance, using asymmetric tactics to prolong the conflict while leveraging economic disruption abroad. How long that approach remains viable may determine not only the war’s outcome but also the stability of global markets and regional security.
[Abridged]
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