Citigroup raises Macau casino revenue forecast for May

Macau’s casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) is estimated to have reached MOP20.50 billion in May, according to a memo from Citigroup. This revised estimate is up from the firm’s previous forecast of MOP20.0 billion, driven by higher month-on-month mass and VIP gaming volumes.

“The implied daily-run rate of last week was approximately MOP686 million, about 19% higher versus [the] prior week at approximately MOP579 million a day,” said George Choi, analyst at Citigroup, as cited in a GGRAsia report.

“We believe the improved daily-run rate was mainly visitation driven.”

Choi attributed the increase in visitation to concerts by the Hong Kong Cantopop group Mirror at the Galaxy Arena from May 16 to May 19, as well as the recent introduction of the Small 6/Big6 side bets by Sands China Ltd and Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd.

If the MOP20.5 billion figure is realized, it would represent around 79% of the same month in 2019, the immediate pre-pandemic trading year.

“Macau’s market-wide GGR reached approximately MOP13.4 billion in the first 19 days of May, according to industry sources,” Choi noted in the memo.

Citigroup also expects daily casino GGR of MOP592 million for the rest of this month in Macau. The firm’s latest estimate reflects a 15% to 18% month-on-month increase in Macau’s VIP gaming volumes and a 13% to 15% sequential increase in the mass gaming segment.

“VIP hold rate appears to be slightly higher than normal,” Citigroup added. Staff reporter