Citigroup lowers September GGR forecast to MOP19.5 billion

Citigroup has lowered its September gross gaming revenue (GGR) forecast for Macau to MOP19.5 billion, down from an earlier estimate of MOP20 billion, reflecting softer market momentum and a slightly lower VIP hold rate. Despite the revision, the forecast still represents about 88% of September 2019 levels and a 13% year-on-year increase.

The bank reported that GGR for the first 14 days of September, a period that typically experiences slower activity, likely reached MOP8.8 billion. From September 8 to 14, the average daily GGR was MOP621 million, marking a slight decline of about 2% from the early September average of MOP636 million per day.

Despite this dip, the figure remains 8% higher than the same period last year, which averaged roughly MOP575 million daily.

Citigroup attributed the recent slowdown to a relatively quiet events schedule in Macau over the past week. Industry sources noted VIP volumes fell by approximately 10–14% month-on-month, while Mass GGR declined about 10–12% month-on-month. Although VIP hold rates were consistent with early September, they remained below August levels.

This adjustment follows Citigroup’s earlier upward revision to its full-year 2025 GGR forecast for Macau’s casino sector. Citi analysts now project full-year GGR to reach MOP248.6 billion, up from a previous estimate of MOP235.7 billion.

Analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau noted that this would imply 14% year-on-year growth for the remainder of the year, highlighting that casino operators are “strategically organizing some heavyweight events after Golden Week,” including Jackson Wang concerts at the Galaxy Arena.