Macau to outpace regional gaming markets, Moody’s says

Macau is poised to lead gaming growth across Asia over the next 12 to 18 months, supported by strong domestic demand and resilience to rising travel costs, according to Moody’s Ratings.

The agency said differences in macroeconomic conditions and exposure to fuel price volatility will shape performance across the region, with Macau benefiting from its proximity to mainland China and reliance on short-haul travel.

In contrast, gaming operators in Southeast Asia face heightened risks tied to higher airfares and geopolitical uncertainty, particularly linked to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

Moody’s highlighted Macau’s robust recovery, noting that gross gaming revenue (GGR) rose 6.8% year over year in the first half of 2026, compared with 4.4% growth in the same period of 2025.

The agency expects this upward trajectory to continue, supported by diversified entertainment offerings and infrastructure expansion.

Large-scale events, including residency shows, concerts and major sporting events, are driving visitation and spending, alongside new hotel openings that expand capacity. Analysts emphasized that Macau’s core customer base, largely from mainland China, is less sensitive to fluctuations in long-haul travel costs.

“Macau is better positioned to ride out such regional headwinds because its core mainland Chinese visitor base will favor short-haul travel for as long as uncertainty over fuel prices makes long-haul trips relatively more expensive,” Moody’s said.

Headwinds in Southeast Asia

In Southeast Asia, however, the rating agency indicated that operators are more exposed to international air travel, leaving them vulnerable to rising fuel costs.

“Despite the recent pullback, oil prices and related travel costs remain above the historical levels of the past two to three years,” Moody’s said, adding that any relief from lower oil prices will likely be gradual due to airline pricing strategies and booking lead times.

Moody’s also said Singapore and Malaysia could see reduced tourism spending as higher airfares discourage visitors from more geographically dispersed markets. In Singapore, Resorts World Sentosa is broadening its appeal through non-gaming attractions introduced since 2025, which Moody’s said should help offset weaker gaming performance as the property has lost market share to Marina Bay Sands.

Whereas, Cambodia faces additional uncertainty tied to its political tensions with Thailand, although Moody’s noted that NagaWorld in Phnom Penh has so far shown resilience.

Overall, Moody’s now expects only low single-digit gross gaming revenue growth across Southeast Asia between 2026 and 2027. It concluded that while operators in the region face pressure, the impact is unlikely to be severe and is more likely to prompt gradual adaptation across markets.