More visitors, higher spending- and a growing, more connected region

AI-GENERATED ILLUSTRATION

Analisys

The Greater Bay Area emerged from China’s National Day holiday with crowded border crossings, record passenger movements and billions of yuan in tourism spending. But behind the impressive numbers lies a more revealing economic story: the region is becoming increasingly successful at moving people, while converting that mobility into higher spending remains a more complicated task.

According to preliminary figures released by the Guangdong Department of Culture and Tourism, the province received 62.79 million visitors during the October 1–7 holiday, generating RMB58.44 billion in tourism expenditure. Average daily visitor numbers increased 10.1% year over year, while spending rose 8.9%.

Although both indicators improved, spending grew more slowly than visitor numbers, suggesting that the average tourist generated slightly less revenue than a year earlier.

This is not evidence of a collapsing consumer market. Rather, it illustrates the difference between attracting crowds and extracting greater economic value from them – a challenge shared by destinations across the GBA.

Figures published by Guangzhou’s tourism authorities show that the provincial capital welcomed 16.05 million visitors and recorded RMB14.5 billion in cultural and tourism consumption. Visitor numbers increased 5.5%, while spending rose 5.9% on a comparable basis. Guangzhou therefore achieved a modest improvement in spending relative to visitor growth, contrasting with Guangdong’s overall pattern.

The comparison also highlights an important geographical distinction: Guangdong’s headline figures cover the entire province, not exclusively the nine mainland GBA cities. Strong performances elsewhere in Guangdong cannot automatically be attributed to regional economic integration.

Zhuhai offers another perspective. According to local tourism figures reported by Guangdong media, the city received approximately 3.11 million visitors, with average daily arrivals increasing 18.1%. Tourism revenue reached RMB2.90 billion, rising 28.6% on the same basis. Unlike the provincial trend, spending substantially outpaced visitor growth.

That performance suggests Zhuhai was relatively successful in turning additional visitors into additional revenue, although the figures alone cannot establish whether the improvement came from accommodation, entertainment, dining or other purchases.

The contrast between Guangzhou and Zhuhai underscores the increasingly differentiated tourism economies emerging across the region. Major cities compete not simply for arrivals but for visitors willing to stay longer and spend more.

Meanwhile, cross-border infrastructure continues to reshape travel behavior.

According to figures released by Zhuhai’s border authorities and carried by local media, the Hong Kong–Zhuhai–Macau Bridge handled more than 686,000 passenger crossings and approximately 167,000 vehicle movements between October 1 and October 7 at 8 p.m. Hong Kong and Macau vehicles traveling north accounted for approximately 110,000 movements.

These figures reflect the growing importance of private vehicles in regional mobility, alongside established rail, ferry and bus connections.

For Macau, the holiday demonstrated the importance of mainland access to its visitor economy. Provisional statistics released by the Macao Government Tourism Office recorded approximately 1.14 million tourist arrivals over the seven days, averaging 163,282 daily, up 15.5% compared with the daily average during the eight-day 2025 holiday.

October 4 was particularly busy, with 210,276 arrivals. According to the tourism office, the Border Gate remained the largest entry point, followed by Hengqin and the Hong Kong–Zhuhai–Macau Bridge.

These flows illustrate how Macau’s tourism market increasingly operates within a wider network of regional travel options. Hengqin provides an additional gateway, while improved road connections allow visitors to combine destinations during shorter trips.

Yet the economic benefits are not distributed automatically. A visitor crossing into Macau does not necessarily stay overnight, spend heavily or support businesses beyond established tourist districts.

The same applies to the wider GBA. Better transport links can encourage multi-city itineraries, but they also make it easier for visitors to compare prices, shift spending between jurisdictions and return home without booking accommodation.

For policymakers, this creates a different challenge from the traditional pursuit of higher arrival numbers.

Investment in transport capacity remains essential, particularly as cross-border private vehicle schemes expand. But infrastructure alone cannot guarantee stronger tourism profitability. Cities also need compelling attractions, competitive hospitality services and experiences that encourage visitors to extend their stays.

The holiday figures therefore offer two messages. Regional connectivity is making travel easier and helping destinations attract larger audiences. At the same time, the uneven relationship between arrivals and expenditure shows that economic returns depend increasingly on what visitors do after reaching their destination.

The next test for the GBA is not simply whether it can accommodate another record-breaking holiday. It is whether the region can convert expanding mobility into sustained spending, longer visits and broader benefits for local businesses.