Property market weakens in first half of 2026 amid falling transactions and softer prices

[Photo: Renato Marques]

The city’s housing market showed clear signs of strain in the first half of 2026, with declining transaction volumes, softer prices and tighter credit weighing on both residential and commercial sectors, according to Centaline property,

Speaking at a press conference yesterday afternoon, Roy Ho, director of Centaline Macau and Zhuhai Hengqin Property, said overall activity declined despite limited pockets of resilience. “With the opening of industrial and commercial properties in the first half of the year, we actually had 65 transactions in the first quarter and 54 in the second quarter, adding up to 149 cases, down 20% during the same period,” Ho said.

Although activity improved in the second quarter, momentum remained weak. Only two transactions exceeded MOP60 million during the period.

Ho said deals were largely concentrated in traditional districts such as the Border Gate and Taipa, where rental yields above 4.3% continued to attract investors. However, he cautioned that price movements did not reflect a broad recovery.

“The main reason is that most of the properties transacted in the second quarter will be in some better locations,” Ho said, noting that stronger pricing was driven by prime assets rather than overall market improvement.

Leasing market diverges

The leasing sector showed uneven performance, with tourist areas outperforming local districts.

“In terms of leasing, tourist areas are of course very popular,” Ho said. “The average increase […] is about four percent […] and in casino areas around 10%.”

Vacancy rates also reflected the divergence. Taipa remained stable at around 2.3%, while Nam Van rose to about 13% following tenant departures. Central districts recorded vacancy of roughly 5.5%.

[Photo: Nadia Shaw]

Offices and Industrial under pressure

Commercial segments continued to face structural challenges, despite isolated gains in transaction figures.

Ho said office transactions rose 40% year-on-year to 59 deals, largely due to bulk sales in the first quarter. However, underlying demand remained weak as government office relocations reshaped the market.

“Now it is the other way around,” Ho said, referring to previously popular districts such as Nam Van, where vacancy has climbed to about 12.9%. In contrast, areas attracting government departments have seen more stable demand, even as rents and prices remain subdued.

Industrial properties saw sharper declines. Transaction volumes fell 44% year-on-year, while average prices dropped to about MOP1,600 per square foot.

Credit tightening and demand

Also, during the press conference, managing director at Centaline, Stanley Poon said banks have become increasingly cautious, particularly toward commercial property lending, while capital controls have reduced mainland buyer activity.

“Banks are not very active in the mortgage business […] and new buyers have decreased,” Poon said. “This is also a vicious cycle that has caused prices to stagnate,” adding that broader uncertainties, including the possibility of further interest rate hikes, continue to cloud the outlook.

Looking ahead, the Centaline executives warned of continued downward pressure on transaction volumes.“In fact, there will be downward pressure on the transaction volume,” Ho said, adding that only well-priced assets in prime tourist and casino districts are likely to sell quickly.

Looking toward the Greater Bay Area and wider mainland, the trends remain mixed. As revealed by Ho, first-tier mainland cities such as Shenzhen and Shanghai recorded modest gains in the first half of the year, while Macau had logged six consecutive months of declines.

Zhuhai, including Hengqin, has also reported weaker prices and transaction volumes.

Despite the downturn, Centaline said some support could emerge in the luxury segment, as long-term investors seek larger residential assets following recent price corrections.