Visitor influx high despite weather woes

The number of visitors to Macau over the five-day Golden Week of the Labor Day holiday can be considered significantly high, particularly after the bad weather in the whole South China region in the last few days.

Even if the conditions were not ideal, with several areas of the Guangdong province, including the neighboring city of Zhuhai, registering major disruption as a consequence of the severe rainfall, the figures recorded by the Public Security Police Force (PSP) show the number of visitors entering Macau over the five days of the “Golden Week” was in line with the forecasts.

In total, Macau received 604,395 visitors, a daily average of 120,879, close to the 130,000 per day forecasted by the Macao Government Tourism Office (MGTO).

The single day with a higher influx of visitors was May 3 (Friday) when 154,006 crossed the border into Macau, followed by the previous day (May 2) in which 150,862 arrived.

Other than these, the figures recorded over the other three days can be considered normal, like any other weekend or public holiday.

On Saturday (May 4) the severe rainstorm that affected Macau and the neighboring regions caused the suspension of most public transport and even the access of private vehicles to the major border checkpoint, the Border Gate, from the Zhuhai side.

Concurrently, the peak of visitors entering and exiting Macau was May 3, with 159,446 visitors leaving Macau, exceeding arrivals by over 5,000.

The PSP recorded 36,189 foreign visitors over the five days, with a daily average of 7,238, 5.99% of the total arrivals. The figure is 2% higher compared to the recent Easter and Ching Ming Festival.

May 5 (Sunday) recorded the largest influx of foreign visitors in the whole period, with 9,046 entering Macau.

When compared year-on-year with last year, the number of arrivals during the first four days of the Labor Day Golden Week is some 22% higher than in 2023 when, during the first four days, Macau received some 435,808 in contrast with the 532,761 recorded this year.

The most popular border checkpoint continues to be the Border Gate, followed by Hengqin Port and Qingmao Port.

The Macau Port of the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge comes only in fourth with fewer than half the entries registered at the Qingmao Port and only around 11.1% of the entries registered at Border Gate.

May GGR to reach MOP20 billion

Citigroup has predicted Macau will achieve a gross gaming revenue (GGR) of MOP20 billion in May, recovering to 77% of the pre-Covid level.

According to analysts George Choi and Ryan Cheung, this estimate translates to a daily run-rate of MOP645 million. In April, Macau’s GGR exceeded expectations, reaching MOP18.55 billion, surpassing Citigroup’s estimate of MOP18 billion and the consensus forecast of MOP18.1 billion.

This resulted in a daily run-rate of MOP672 million for the final nine days of the month, representing a 12% increase compared to the previous week. The analysts believe this higher daily run-rate suggests some visitors arrived in Macau even before the start of the Labor Day Holidays. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley has projected Macau’s May GGR will reach MOP19.7 billion, reflecting a 6% month-on-month increase and a recovery to 76% of the 2019 level.