Casino growth expected to strengthen in May after April miss

Macau’s casino industry is expected to post stronger growth in May after April’s gross gaming revenue came in below forecasts, according to Seaport Research Partners. April GGR in Macau grew 5.5% year-over-year to MOP19.89 billion, falling well short of Seaport’s earlier forecast of more than 11%.

The brokerage said the weaker-than-expected result was driven by “low VIP hold,” meaning the industry likely would have posted double-digit growth if win rates had been more typical. MGM China and Galaxy Entertainment Group were estimated to have gained market share month over month, while Sands China and Melco Resorts & Entertainment lost ground.

On May’s outlook, Seaport said the outlook is expected to improve, aided by the five-day Golden Week holiday from May 1 to May 5.

Vitaly Umansky, senior analyst at Seaport Research Partners, said in a Friday memo after the April GGR figures: “We forecast May GGR to increase by 8.5% year-over-year. While not always reflective of GGR strength, the Golden Week five-day holiday… is shaping up to have strong visitation and high hotel occupancy.”

“We anticipate some customer trips were deferred from April into May.”

Seaport said that some spending may have shifted into May from April, giving the month an additional lift.

So far, the holiday has already brought a surge in visitors from mainland China, Macau’s main source of tourists. The city recorded 632,951 visitors from May 1 through May 3, up 5% from the same period a year earlier.

Looking further ahead, the firm warned that growth is likely to slow in the second half of 2026 as Macau faces tougher year-over-year comparisons. Seaport projects full-year growth of 7%, with growth of 9.9% in the first half and 4.4% in the second half, unless broader demand or liquidity conditions improve.