Casinos face September setback as premium demand cools

The casino market is heading into the autumn holiday season with a softer revenue outlook, after a Citi survey found a marked pullback in premium-mass wagering and prompted the bank to lower its September gross gaming revenue (GGR)estimate.

Citi now expects the city’s casinos to generate MOP18 billion in GGR this month, 10% below its earlier forecast of MOP20 billion. The revised figure would be 14% lower than September 2025 and leave third-quarter GGR about 4% below last year’s level, analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau said.

The downgrade reflects a sharp deterioration in the spending patterns captured during Citi’s Sept. 18 visit. Premium-mass wagers observed by the bank fell 45% from a year earlier to HKD6.8 million, while the number of players declined 20% to 401.

Spending per customer also weakened. Average wagering among those players dropped 31% to HKD16,958, suggesting that the decline was not solely the result of lower footfall but also reflected more restrained spending among those who were present.

Citi said casino floors appeared quieter than during its previous survey three months earlier. The analysts described the latest results as among the weakest in their recent history, although they cautioned that a single-night snapshot is insufficient to establish a broader change in consumer behavior.

Holiday timing offers one possible explanation, according to the brokerage. The survey was conducted shortly before the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day Golden Week, raising the prospect that some visitors had shifted their casino trips into the holiday period rather than abandoned them altogether.

The competitive picture was also uneven. Galaxy Entertainment Group captured 26% of the premium-mass wagers observed by Citi, up from 20% a year earlier. MGM China increased its share to 24%, from 9%, putting the operator in second place in the latest survey.

MGM also recorded the largest concentration of high-value customers. Citi identified five such players across its two MGM properties, compared with three at Galaxy Macau and StarWorld. The total number observed across the market was 14, versus 13 a year earlier and 17 in August.

Meanwhile, operators continue to invest in their properties despite the softer near-term figures. Citi said the second phase of Crystal Palace at Casino Lisboa had opened with about 30 baccarat tables, along with traditional games such as Sic Bo and Pai Gow.

At Wynn Palace, the east-entrance shuttle stop has been relocated to vacant land near the south lobby, while construction appeared to have started on the Enclave project, according to Citi.

October could provide a more meaningful gauge of demand as Galaxy Arena is scheduled to host concerts by Rene Liu, Jane Zhang and Richie Jen, while The Venetian and The Londoner will stage a Sara Landry performance and the NBA China Games. MGM is also due to host a Jonathan Lee concert.

Citi pointed to September 2024, when a similarly weak survey was followed by stronger October revenue as visitors delayed trips for Golden Week events.

That precedent leaves open the possibility that September’s weakness is partly a timing issue, although the bank has nonetheless reduced its near-term revenue forecast.