Gaming revenue eases in early September

The casino sector entered September on a softer footing, with gaming revenue moderating from August as the summer travel season wound down, although analysts expect the market to maintain year-over-year growth.

Gross gaming revenue (GGR) averaged about MOP633 million per day from Sept. 1 to 6, according to recent research from UBS and Citigroup. The figure was approximately 10% below August’s daily average of MOP706 million but remained about 4% higher than the same period last year.

The early-month decline was largely consistent with normal seasonal patterns, UBS said, noting that revenue during the comparable period in 2015-2019 typically fell about 5% from the previous month.

The mass-market segment saw daily revenue decline by an estimated 10% to 12% from August, while VIP gaming revenue fell about 8% to 10%. VIP hold rates were estimated at 3% to 3.3%.

Analysts remain relatively positive on the full-month outlook. UBS expects September GGR to increase 7% to 12% year over year, while market forecasts place the daily average at roughly MOP650 million to MOP670 million.

Citigroup has a higher forecast of MOP20.5 billion for September GGR, representing 12% annual growth. The bank said concerts and other events scheduled in Macau could provide additional support for gaming activity later in the month.

Meanwhile, hotel indicators suggest a softer Golden Week outlook, with average room rates at comparable properties tracked by UBS down 22% year over year. LV