Gaming revenues forecast to surge up to 13% in March

Analysts project Macau’s gross gaming revenues to grow between 10% and 13% in March, building on a strong February finish supported by Chinese New Year travel.

Seaport Research Partners senior analyst Vitaly Umansky estimated in a Monday note that March gross gaming revenue (GGR) will rise 12.5% year-on-year, despite a 2.7% decline in average daily revenues compared with the combined January and February period. Meanwhile, JPMorgan forecasts March GGR growth exceeding 10%, based on daily levels of MOP700 million, which would lift first-quarter 2026 totals to 13%–14%.

JPMorgan described full-February results as “particularly impressive following the relatively soft Lunar New Year performance,” attributing it to a “timing dynamic, not weak underlying demand.” Similarly, Seaport noted that February “ended extremely strongly following a very weak first two weeks.”

February revenues rose 4.5% year-on-year, boosted by a post–Chinese New Year tailwind after the mainland holiday ran February 15–23 this year.

Umansky estimated daily GGR during the holiday at about MOP890 million, roughly 2% below October Golden Week levels – which spanned National Day on October 1 – and 10% above Chinese New Year 2025, when the mainland holiday lasted eight days from January 28 to February 4.

“Chinese New Year was late this year, with the China government official holiday period running February 15 to 23, and we expect some strength in March from high-end play as some high rollers stayed away during CNY,” Umansky said. He cautioned, however, that China’s National People’s Congress, scheduled for March 5 to 11, could act as a headwind.

Macau’s January–February combined GGR jumped 13.5% year-on-year, with VIP volumes up 28%-30% and mass market and slots growing 11%-12%, according to JPMorgan.

The bank highlighted green shoots including a shift toward mass and slot play, stabilizing operating expenses due to fewer non-gaming events, and steady promotions amid competition.

Seaport projects first-quarter 2026 GGR growth at 13.4%, slowing to mid-single-digit growth in the second quarter.