Gov’t GGR forecast unchanged despite four straight months fall

Last month’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) stood at MOP18 billion, marking a fourth consecutive month of year-on-year decline.

Questioned on the matter by the media, the Chief Executive (CE) Sam Hou Fai said that the government is monitoring the situation closely and has not yet considered adjusting the government’s GGR forecast for this year.

In an interview during the government headquarters’ open day, Sam noted that this year’s gaming revenue forecast is about MOP237 billion to MOP238 billion, while gaming tax revenue for the first nine months reached MOP187.1 billion — leaving more than MOP50 billion to meet the budget.

He said he hoped October would help close the gap, calling it “a very important month,” especially with Golden Week visitor arrivals up year-on-year, adding that if gaming tax revenue rises steadily year-on-year, the target could be met.

In the same interview, he reminded the public that gaming remains the most important sector in Macau’s economic structure, accounting for 80% of fiscal revenue.

“After the pandemic — 2023, 2024, 2025, and now three and a half years into 2026, nearly four years — we saw frequent upward growth in gaming revenue. But from the second quarter this year… if the decline begins in the third quarter, is this a phase brought about by changes in the internal and external environment, such as the economic climate, external factors, and adjustments in neighboring stock and property markets? Or has post-pandemic gaming revenue already reached a relatively high level and may be turning? Nobody knows, so we are watching closely,” he said.

He stressed that Macau, as a micro-economy, relies heavily on visitors from elsewhere, with service exports carrying an enormous weight.

“If the post-pandemic development of the gaming industry has truly reached a relatively high level, and will be stable in the future or even adjust downward, how do we cope with the impact on our fiscal position, social security, healthcare, education, public health and rigid public spending? So, we are studying this together with all sectors of society,” he said.

Speaking about next year’s policy address, Sam said the public consultation closed last month, with 3,417 submissions containing 9,000 suggestions on social security, livelihood and welfare, economic diversification, and public administration reform.

He said that the five secretaries also led their departments in collecting views from community groups, and the government is now categorizing and summarizing them, with next year’s policy direction responding to society’s and residents’ main concerns.

He outlined the main directions: improving government governance capacity, continuing public administration reform, and safeguarding social stability and national security; further improving livelihoods, based on a comprehensive assessment of this year’s economic environment, especially gaming tax revenue, to determine how best to create conditions to meet future challenges; and continuing to advance “1+4” economic diversification under the Third Five-Year Plan.

Sam stressed that Macau’s rigid spending totals MOP80 billion, with per capita spending exceeding MOP1 million.

“Relying too heavily on a single industry means our capacity to cope with risks and challenges is not strong enough,” he said, adding that economic diversification would therefore continue.

He noted that the four major projects are progressing step by step, including the first phase of the university, the first shipment and flight from the advanced cargo station, and the concept design for the cultural zone and parts of the national museum, with the goal of advancing the Third Five-Year Plan and overall governance.