Macau’s gaming recovery outpaces forecasts despite stormy October

Courtesy Bloomberg

Macau’s casino industry defied expectations in October, posting its strongest gains since mid-summer. Gross gaming revenue climbed 15.9% year-on-year to MOP24.09 billion ($3.01 billion) — beating the median analyst estimate of 11.7% — and reaching 91% of 2019’s pre-pandemic level.

Published today (Saturday) by the gaming authority (DICJ), the results suggest that demand for gaming and tourism remains resilient even as regional headwinds, from typhoons to competing events, briefly dampened the holiday surge.

According to Citigroup’s George Choi and JPMorgan’s DS Kim, Macau’s National Day “Golden Week” started strong, drawing a record daily average of 143,000 arrivals, but spending tailed off mid-week as a typhoon disrupted travel and the Singapore Grand Prix “siphoned high-rollers,” Bloomberg reported Saturday.

Visitor traffic has shown steady recovery — 2.8 million in September, up 10% year-on-year — and October’s forthcoming arrivals data will test whether the late-month rebound held. Analysts cited by Bloomberg caution that momentum now hinges on sustaining mass-market play and premium customer return during the quieter winter months.

SOURCE: DICJ

Still, October’s tally underscores a structural rebound in leisure spending, supported by stable mainland China travel policies and incremental improvements in air and ferry capacity. Operators continue shifting focus toward non-gaming attractions and entertainment to align with government diversification targets.

Market sentiment, however, tells a different story. The Bloomberg Intelligence Index of Macau casino operators fell 10.3% in October, tracking investor caution over margins, regulatory scrutiny, and China’s slowing economy. The Hang Seng Index, meanwhile, slipped 3.5%, marking a fifth straight monthly decline.

For policymakers and investors, the key signal will come from fourth-quarter revenue consistency — whether Macau’s casinos can maintain close to 90% of pre-COVID turnover without heavy reliance on high-stakes play.

Sustained recovery would strengthen the city’s fiscal base and validate its evolving, tourism-centric model amid Greater Bay Area integration.