When everything is the wolf: Macau’s warning-fatigue issue

Renato Marques

The lesson of Aesop’s fable – The Boy Who Cried Wolf – is not that we should live peacefully without any warnings, but that warnings lose their power to alert when the public can no longer distinguish routine caution from imminent danger.

This seems to be the case with the more or less recent measure undertaken by the local Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau (SMG).

For those less familiar with the story, in The Boy Who Cried Wolf, a young shepherd repeatedly raises false alarms about a wolf attacking his flock. Villagers abandon their work and rush to his aid, only to find no wolf. When the threat finally appears, nobody responds because they have grown tired of the boy’s lies.

For some Macau residents, the steady stream of weather bulletins, rainstorm alerts, thunderstorm alerts and tropical-cyclone signals issued by the SMG can feel uncomfortably similar.

On some days, phones buzz nonstop, sometimes for a good reason, but most of the time for no reason at all.

While it is acceptable and commendable that the SMG warns residents of real dangers to their lives and property, it is exhausting to rush to the phone to read messages such as “it’s hot continuously, drink water promptly” or “it’s cold, put on some extra clothes.”

People know when it is hot; they can also tell when it is cold. Even if they are not alerted by a centralized system, they will quickly learn about it as soon as they step outside. There is no urgency in these matters, particularly when such alerts are issued continuously over a long period of days.

I am not saying that having such an alert system is bad; I am just saying there is a poor understanding of how to use it effectively.

In my view, the line separating a routine event from an exceptional one lies in its severity or urgency.

In a more practical sense, a statement like “a typhoon is maybe approaching in maybe a week” does not warrant a warning to the population. In contrast, a statement like “Signal 8 will be hoisted in two hours” or “the Black Rainstorm Warning Signal is active” does warrant this sort of attention.

Besides, there is a clear rule for what happens during extreme weather-related events; there is a series of procedures that the population has become accustomed to following.

Constantly issuing warnings that prompt no action is a waste of time; worse, it is crying wolf when there is no wolf, and, honestly, we have had too many of those.

Sure, there is the preventive side, but a good preventive system prompts action when needed. No one (other than the security forces) can stay on maximum alert for 365 days a year; it is exhausting.

Additionally, tourism, our main economic pillar, is affected: exaggerated warnings can prompt visitors to reconsider trips, businesses to adjust schedules or halt services, and airlines to consider canceling flights.

It all comes down to the simplest yet most elusive thing to achieve – balance.

Meteorology is not an exact science; there are many factors and a degree of unpredictability, but if we stick to what is essential – that is, warnings that are urgent and prompt people to take action – I believe we should do pretty well.

A perfect warning system might not yet exist, but I am sure that with the current tools at our disposal, we can certainly do better.