2025 GGR beats expectations, analysts eye MOP260 billion in 2026

The local casino industry closed out 2025 with total gross gaming revenue (GGR) of MOP247.4 billion.

The final figure confirms the forecast made by the previous government of Ho Iat Seng, which estimated MOP240 billion in revenue for this year, while it is well above the revision by the current government, led by Sam Hou Fai, which projected just MOP228 billion. The 2025 result represents a recovery of the sector to 84.6% of the 2019 level (MOP292.5 billion).

Contributing to this result was strong performance in December 2025 (MOP20.9 billion), averaging approximately MOP674 million per day. December results showed 14.8% year-on-year growth and a return to about 91% of the level seen in December 2019. Still, the figure was below the forecasts of several market analysts, who expected a result 3–5% higher.

According to a report from Citigroup, one of those that had forecast higher GGR in December, the shortfall was primarily due to “an unusually low VIP hold, likely below 3%.”

After a slow start to the year, with monthly results mostly below the MOP20 billion per month mark, the second half of the year delivered an average of MOP21.4 billion per month, accounting for the final yearly average of MOP20.9 billion.

After the full-year results of 2025 were known, several market analysts provided their insights on 2026. Deutsche Bank expects 2026 to deliver 5.8% growth, implying a total GGR of MOP261.8 billion. The analysts noted that this forecasted growth will be driven by a stronger first quarter, which is expected to deliver a 10.6% year-over-year increase.

JP Morgan analysts also expect GGR to grow by 5%–6% this year, with full-year GGR projected to range from MOP259.8 billion to MOP262.2 billion.

Commenting on the results of 2025, JP Morgan analysts pointed out that the year’s performance was primarily due to a high-performing VIP sector that grew by more than 23%, as well as better-than-expected performance in the mass market and slots, which also grew by more than 7%.

Also providing insights on 2026 was Citigroup, which noted that the year is expected to start strong, particularly in the first two months, when it expects a double-digit increase.

Locally, the president of the Macau Institute of Management, Samuel Tong, followed a similar view to multiple analysts, forecasting GGR in 2026 to reach MOP260 billion. Tong’s forecast points to growth of around 5%.

All these predictions contrast with the government forecast of MOP236 billion for 2026, which, if realized, would represent a 4.6% drop from 2025. Initially missing from Sam Hou Fai’s Policy Address for 2026, the government’s GGR forecast was only disclosed during discussions on the 2026 budget bill at the Legislative Assembly.

At the time, several lawmakers criticized the government’s MOP236 billion projection, calling it “too conservative” and “disconnected from reality.”

One of the lawmakers most critical of the forecast was Kevin Ho, who remarked that such a projection signals a decline in the gaming industry’s performance and, rather than being merely conservative, could pose an economic risk by sending the wrong message to investors and revealing a pessimistic view of the local economy for the coming year.

Before the full-year results were known, investment bank CLSA also joined those disagreeing with the government’s forecast, upgrading its 2026 GGR outlook and noting that revenue is most likely to rise by about 5% year-on-year.

The MOP260 billion figure forecast by most market analysts implies monthly GGR of around MOP21.7 billion, about MOP1 billion higher than the 2025 average. This result (MOP21.7 billion or above) was achieved in 2025 in three separate months – July, August, and October – with the latter representing the year’s high of MOP24.1 billion.