Analysts: revised GGR target seen as foreseeable

The government’s recent 5% downward revision to its 2025 gross gaming revenue (GGR) forecast, proposed last week, was “not a complete surprise,” according to Fitch Solutions Company’s CreditSights.

The proposed revision cuts the annual target from MOP40 billion to MOP228 billion due to softer-than-expected industry performance in the year’s first five months.

Despite May’s GGR hitting just shy of MOP21.2 billion – the highest monthly total observed this year, CreditSights analysts addressed the recent GGR revision as somewhat expected, as monthly GGR through May averaged MOP19.5 billion, thus falling below the original monthly target of MOP20 billion for 2025.

“This is not a complete surprise given the softer-than-required monthly GGR prints since the start of the year; we view the new target as more conservative and in line with the sector’s performance year-to-date,” wrote the CreditSights analysts.

“On average, this represents roughly MOP19.5 billion per month and is slightly ahead of the government’s new MOP19 billion per month target,” added analysts Nicholas Chen and David Bussey. The revised target still represents a 0.5% increase over 2024’s actual GGR of MOP226.8 billion, requiring an average monthly GGR of MOP19 billion.

Visitor arrivals remain robust, rising 13% year-over-year through April, but gaming spending per visitor declined 11%, softening revenue growth.

The revised GGR target has been sent to the Legislative Assembly for deliberation. NS