The Macau Economic Association (ACEM) announced that while third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to rise by around 7% due to increased tourism and leisure activity during mainland China’s recent National Day Golden Week break, local consumption, credit, and investment confidence remain notably weak.
The recently released report by ACEM indicates that the overall economic climate remained at a “stable” level over the past two months. August saw a significant rebound in tourism, with inbound visitor numbers hitting a record high of 136,000 per day.
However, domestic demand and consumer confidence have shown signs of weakness, as evidenced by indicators such as the household loan-to-deposit ratio and the consumer confidence index.
While gross gaming revenue performed strongly in August, averaging MOP714 million per day, this figure declined to MOP610 million in September. According to the report, this drop was attributed to the effects of Super Typhoon Ragasa, which led to a 33-hour suspension of operations across all casinos.
Furthermore, the residential property price index continues to reflect market weakness, reaching decade-long lows since June.
Despite these challenges, the report emphasizes that Macau’s job market remains robust, with the overall unemployment rate holding steady at a low 2.0%.
In terms of policy, the report points out that the Macau government has implemented a series of measures aimed at supporting small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and stimulating consumption, while also enhancing the development of the tourism and healthcare sectors.
It projects that the economic sentiment index for the fourth quarter of the year will remain stable, ranging between 6.0 and 6.2, suggesting a trend of gradual economic recovery.
Analyzing Macau’s macroeconomic figures for the third quarter, the report anticipates that GDP will reach approximately MOP112 billion, with full-year GDP growth expected to be around 4.5%.
For the first three quarters, the combined GDP is estimated at about MOP312 billion, indicating that the economic scale has been restored to approximately 90% of the level observed in the same period pre-pandemic in 2019.
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