World Cup to affect local GGR up to 10%, analysts says

The FIFA World Cup 2026, taking place in the United States, Canada, and Mexico through July 19, is likely to affect the local gaming industry, with gross gaming revenue (GGR) set to decline by up to 10%, according to several market analysts and investment banks.

Adding to such forecasts, Citigroup most recently maintained its previous prediction of a dampening effect of the World Cup on local GGR, potentially reaching as much as 10%.

As others have noted, the investment bank said that the historical impact of previous World Cups on local casinos’ performance continues to suggest that the football tournament is likely to divert part of Macau players’ betting budgets toward sports betting during this period.

Citi also remarked that this is the longest World Cup to date, comprising a total of 48 teams and 104 matches, and that it extends for over five weeks. For this reason, Citi believes that this year’s event is likely to have a greater impact.

“We anticipate a near-term slowdown in Macau GGR due to the most prestigious soccer tournament,” analyst George Choi noted, adding that GGR should decline by 10% year-on-year in June and by 5% year-on-year in July.

“If history repeats itself, this year’s major soccer tournament could have a more severe impact due to its new format and the unprecedented 104 total matches,” he added.

In the most recent event of this kind, UEFA Euro 2024, held exactly two years ago, daily GGR fell to a low of MOP514 million, representing about 17% below the daily average for that year, which was MOP620 million.

Still, the same bank notes that this decline should be only temporary and restricted to the World Cup period, predicting that a swift recovery will follow in August and the following months, fueled by major events including concerts and sports.

“We anticipate a swift GGR recovery immediately after the tournament in mid-July, led by a busy calendar of star-studded concerts and events,” Choi concluded.

Recently, on the same topic, Swiss multinational investment bank UBS also addressed the World Cup’s effect on local GGR, despite considering that the event would be responsible for only a “slight decrease in GGR for June and July.”

UBS analysts said the tougher comparison comes from Macau’s strong second-half performance last year, in which the monthly growth rate of GGR registered double-digit increases throughout each month from June to December 2025, except for September, which was impacted by the closure of all casinos for almost a day and a half due to the passage of Super Typhoon Ragasa through the region.

UBS sees Macau’s first week as steady, with the view that June and July results will only come in slightly below last year due to a reasonably firm first part of June, as well as a potentially quick recovery in the latter part of July.