Brokerage forecasts strong results for second half starting in August

Several local gaming market analysts forecast positive results for Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) in this year’s second half.

According to analysts from Morgan Stanley, the investment banking company, the local GGR could grow as much as 15% in the second half of this year, boosted by a strong August result.

“Our second-half GGR growth forecast of 15% year-on-year is above consensus, but considering August’s estimated 12% annual GGR growth,” they said in their latest update.

When visiting local casinos earlier this week, the analysts found the gaming floors busier than usual for this time of year, contributing to the optimistic forecast.

“Minimum bets on Galaxy were HKD1,000, and for Melco, they were between HKD1,000 and HKD2,000,” the analysts Praveen Choudhary, Anson Lee, and Stephen Grambling noted, adding that hotel bookings in Macau are difficult to find over the summer period, indicating strong demand.

The estimates were also supported by the expected strong programming for concerts, other entertainment events, and sports in the latter part of the year.

The Macao Government Tourism Office recently announced the Macao International Fireworks Display Contest, which will occur throughout September until the Golden Week in October.

The September event program also includes the return of the WTT Champions Macao 2025, the Macao Open – Golf, and several concerts.

November will also feature the traditional Macau Grand Prix and the National Games, which are expected to further increase visitor flow.

Morgan Stanley also noted the dividend payouts announced by the different operators as an indication of stable performance.

Concurrently, another investment bank and Macau market analyst, JP Morgan, has forecasted that the August GGR result could reach as much as MOP22.5 billion, marking the highest “non-golden-week” result since the pandemic.

According to a JP Morgan research report, Macau’s GGR for the first 24 days of August reached MOP17.65 billion, with an average daily revenue of MOP735 million.

Last week’s average daily revenue increased by 9% from the previous week to MOP793 million, compared to the average daily revenue of MOP710 million in the first 17 days of August and the average daily revenue of MOP714 million in July.

This sets a record high since the pandemic.

The analysts also noted that the results benefited primarily from substantial tourist traffic during the summer peak.

According to JP Morgan, both the VIP and Mass segments have seen year-on-year growth of 10 to 15% this month.

The bank expects GGR to grow by 11 to 14% in August, reaching a final figure between MOP21.9 billion and MOP22.5 billion.

The last time that Macau’s monthly GGR exceeded MOP22.5 billion was in December 2019, when the month’s GGR reached MOP22.84 billion.

Last month (July 2025) was the highest result since January 2020, with GGR reaching MOP22.125 billion, just shy of the MOP22.126 billion of the previous regular month before the pandemic.

A result of MOP22.5 billion would place it on the verge of the level seen at the end of 2019, when GGR was MOP22.8 billion and well above the initial forecast by the former local government for this year (MOP20 billion/month), later revised to MOP19 billion by the new government led by Sam Hou Fai.