Saudi Arabia signs a mutual defense pact with nuclear-armed Pakistan

Pakistani PM Shehbaz Sharif (left) embracing Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman after signing a joint defense pact in Riyadh

Saudi Arabia and nuclear-armed Pakistan have signed a mutual defense pact that defines any attack on either nation as an attack on both — a key accord in the wake of Israel’s strike on Qatar last week.

The kingdom has long had close economic, religious and security ties to Pakistan, including reportedly providing funding for Islamabad’s nuclear weapons program as it developed. Analysts — and Pakistani diplomats in at least one case — have suggested over the years that Saudi Arabia could be included under Islamabad’s nuclear umbrella, particularly as tensions have risen over Iran’s atomic program.

But the timing of the pact appeared to be a signal to Israel, long suspected to be the Middle East’s only nuclear-armed state, which has conducted a sprawling military offensive since Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel stretching across Iran, Lebanon, the Palestinian territories, Qatar, Syria and Yemen.

Israel did not respond to requests for comment. The pact marks the first major defense decision by a Gulf Arab country since the Qatar attack. The United States, long the security guarantor for the Gulf Arab states, also did not respond to questions posed to the State Department.

A deal signed in Riyadh

Saudi Arabia’s powerful Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman signed the pact on Wednesday with Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.

While not specifically discussing the bomb, the agreement states “any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both,” according to statements issued by both Pakistan’s Foreign Affairs Ministry and the state-run Saudi Press Agency.

“This agreement … aims to develop aspects of defense cooperation between the two countries and strengthen joint deterrence against any aggression,” the statement said.

A senior Saudi official, speaking on condition of anonymity to The Financial Times, seemed to suggest that Pakistan’s nuclear protection was a part of the deal, saying it “will utilize all defensive and military means deemed necessary depending on the specific threat.”

Zalmay Khalilzad, a former U.S. diplomat with long experience in Afghanistan and Pakistan, expressed concern over the deal, saying it comes in “dangerous times.”

“Pakistan has nuclear weapons and delivery systems that can hit targets across the Middle East, including Israel. It also is developing systems that can reach targets in the U.S.,” Khalilzad wrote on X.

A long defense relationship

Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have a defense relationship stretching back decades, in part due to Islamabad’s willingness to defend the Islamic holy sites of Mecca and Medina in the kingdom. Pakistani troops first traveled to Saudi Arabia in the late 1960s over concerns about Egypt’s war in Yemen at the time.

Those ties increased after Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution and the kingdom’s fears of a confrontation with Tehran.

Pakistan developed its nuclear weapons program to counter India’s atomic bombs. The two neighbors have fought multiple wars against each other and again came close to open warfare after an attack on tourists in April in Indian-controlled Kashmir. India is believed to have an estimated 172 nuclear warheads, while Pakistan has 170, according to the U.S.-published Bulletin of Atomic Scientists.

On Yesterdaysday, India’s Foreign Ministry acknowledged the Saudi-Pakistan pact and said it “will study the implications of this development for our national security as well as for regional and global stability.” Saudi Arabia also maintains close ties with India.

An interest in Pakistan’s program

Retired Pakistani Brig. Gen. Feroz Hassan Khan, in his book on his country’s nuclear weapons program called “Eating Grass: The Making of the Pakistani Bomb,” said Saudi Arabia provided “generous financial support to Pakistan that enabled the nuclear program to continue, especially when the country was under sanctions.”

Pakistan faced U.S. sanctions for years over its pursuit of the bomb — and saw new ones imposed over its ballistic missile work at the end of the Biden administration.

In a 2007 U.S. diplomatic cable published by WikiLeaks, American diplomats in Saudi Arabia noted that their Pakistani counterparts had brought up the idea of the kingdom pursuing a weapons program alongside Islamabad in order to be the “physical protector” of the Mideast.

Both Pakistan and Saudi Arabia did not respond to questions from The Associated Press yesterday on whether the pact extended to Islamabad’s nuclear weapons arsenal. Pakistan “has historically maintained a deliberately ambiguous nuclear doctrine,” according to the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists.

Syed Muhammad Ali, an Islamabad-based security analyst, noted yesterday that Pakistan’s National Command Authority — which oversees the country’s atomic weapons — had not made any statement on the pact. However, he said he believed Pakistan capable of responding to Israel even without the deterrent effect of atomic weapons.

“Pakistan is more than confident that its conventional capability is adequate,” he said. “Pakistan’s military … is adequate enough to improve the security of Saudi Arabia without having to resort to the nuclear option.”

How Iran ties in

Saudi Arabia has sought U.S. assistance to advance a civilian nuclear power program, in part with what had been a proposed diplomatic recognition deal with Israel prior to the 2023 Hamas attack that triggered the nearly two-year war in Gaza. That could allow Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium in the kingdom — something that worries nonproliferation experts as spinning centrifuges opens the door to a possible weapons program.

That deal — and a Saudi recognition of Israel — seem further away than ever as the kingdom has condemned Israel’s actions in Gaza and the crown prince has come out saying that Israel is committing a “genocide” in the Gaza Strip. MUNIR AHMED, ISLAMABAD, MDT/AP