Ukraine’s drone attack on planes was a serious blow to Kremlin’s strategic arsenal

This photo released by Irkutsk regional Gov. Igor Kobzev’s Telegram channel last Sunday
shows a burning truck that apparently was used to launch Ukrainian drones

A surprise Ukrainian drone attack that targeted several Russian air bases hosting nuclear-capable strategic bombers was unprecedented in its scope and sophistication and for the first time reached as far as Siberia in a heavy blow to the Russian military.

Ukraine said over 40 bombers, or about a third of Russia’s strategic bomber fleet, were damaged or destroyed Sunday, although Moscow said only several planes were struck. The conflicting claims couldn’t be independently verified and video of the assault posted on social media showed only a couple of bombers hit.

But the bold attack demonstrated Ukraine’s capability to hit high-value targets anywhere in Russia, dealing a humiliating blow to the Kremlin and inflicting significant losses to Moscow’s war machine.

While some Russian military bloggers compared it to another infamous Sunday surprise attack — that of Japan’s strike on the U.S. base at Pearl Harbor in 1941 — others rejected the analogy, arguing the actual damage was far less significant than Ukraine claimed.

Russia’s bomber assets

For decades, long-range bombers have been part of the Soviet and Russian nuclear triad that also includes land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles and atomic-powered submarines carrying ICBMs. The strategic bombers have flown regular patrols around the globe showcasing Moscow’s nuclear might.

During the 3-year-old war in Ukraine, Russia has used the heavy planes to launch waves of cruise missile strikes across the country.

The Tupolev Tu-95, which was code named Bear by NATO, is a four-engine turboprop plane designed in the 1950s to rival the U.S. B-52 bomber. The aircraft has an intercontinental range and carries eight long-range cruise missiles that can be equipped with conventional or nuclear warheads.

Before Sunday, Russia was estimated to have a fleet of about 60 such aircraft.

The Tupolev Tu-22M is a twin-engine supersonic bomber designed in the 1970s that was code named Backfire by NATO. It has a shorter range compared with the Tu-95, but during U.S.-Soviet arms control talks in the 1970s, Washington insisted on counting them as part of the Soviet strategic nuclear arsenal because of their capability to reach the U.S. if refueled in flight.

The latest version of the plane, the Tu-22M3, carries Kh-22 cruise missiles that fly at more than three times the speed of sound. It dates to the 1970s, when it was designed by the Soviet Union to strike U.S. aircraft carriers. It packs a big punch, thanks to its supersonic speed and ability to carry 630 kilograms (nearly 1,400 pounds) of explosives, but its outdated guidance system could make it highly inaccurate against ground targets, raising the possibility of collateral damage.

Some Tu-22Ms were lost in previous Ukrainian attacks, and Russia was estimated to have between 50 and 60 Tu-22M3s in service before Sunday’s drone strike.

The production of the Tu-95 and the Tu-22M ended after the 1991 collapse of the USSR, meaning that any lost can’t be replaced.

Russia also has another type of strategic nuclear-capable bomber, the supersonic Tu-160. Fewer than 20 of them are in service, and Russia has just begun production of its modernized version equipped with new engines and avionics.

Russia lost a significant part of its heavy bomber fleet in the attack “with no immediate ability to replace it,” said Douglas Barrie of the International Institute of Strategic Studies, noting that Moscow’s announced plan to develop the next generation strategic bomber is still in its early phase.

“Ironically this might give impetus to that program, because if if you want to keep your bomber fleet up to size, then you’re going to have to do something at some point,” he said.

The A-50, which Ukrainian officials also said was hit in the strikes, is an early warning and control aircraft similar to the U.S. AWACS planes used to coordinate aerial attacks. Only a few such planes are in service with the Russian military, and any loss badly dents Russia’s military capability.

Relocating bombers and impromptu protection

Repeated Ukrainian strikes on the Engels air base, the main base for Russian nuclear-capable strategic bombers near the Volga River city of Saratov, prompted Moscow to relocate the bombers to other bases farther from the conflict.

One of them was Olenya on the Arctic Kola Peninsula, from where Tu-95s have flown multiple missions to launch cruise missiles at Ukraine. Several bombers at Olenya apparently were hit by the Ukrainian drones Sunday, according to analysts studying satellite images before and after the strike.

Other drones targeted the Belaya air base in the Irkutsk region in eastern Siberia, destroying a few Tu-22M bombers, according to analysts.

Ukraine said 41 aircraft — Tu-95s, Tu-22Ms and A-50s — were damaged or destroyed in the attack that it said was in the works for 18 months in which swarms of drones popped out of containers carried on trucks that were parked near four air bases.

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth was briefed on the attack, which represented a level of sophistication that Washington had not seen before, a senior defense official said on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.

The Russian Defense Ministry said the attack set several warplanes ablaze at air bases in the Irkutsk region and the Murmansk region in the north, but the fires were extinguished.

It said Ukraine also tried to strike two air bases in western Russia, as well as another one in the Amur region of Russia’s Far East, but those attacks were repelled.

The drone strikes produced an outcry from Russian military bloggers, who criticized the Defense Ministry for failing to learn from previous strikes and protect the bombers. Building shelters or hangars for such large planes is a daunting task, and the military has tried some impromptu solutions that were criticized as window dressing.

Satellite images have shown Tu-95s at various air bases covered by layers of old tires — a measure of dubious efficiency that has drawn mockery on social media. MDT/AP