Zambia is voting in a presidential election. Why China and the US might be interested

[AP Photo]

Zambia holds an election Thursday (today, Macau time) to decide if President Hakainde Hichilema will get a second five-year term as reward for his economic recovery plan in the southern African nation that’s one of the world’s top copper producers but was recently mired in a debt crisis.

China is heavily invested in Zambia’s copper sector, while the U.S. has shown new interest in the country as part of President Donald Trump’s focus on critical minerals to ease China’s dominance in that area.

Zambia defaulted on sovereign debt repayments to China and other nations in 2020, drawing attention to the unsustainable burdens faced by some developing countries.

Hichilema was elected a year later, and Zambia has restructured more than $12 billion in debts under his leadership while reining in inflation.

His long-term economic plan involves a pledge to more than triple Zambia’s copper output to 3 million metric tons a year by 2031, which would be a staggering rise in production of the in-demand critical mineral.

China is the top foreign investor in Zambia, especially for its copper and cobalt — critical minerals that are used in electronics, electric vehicles and other new technologies.

Those minerals have also drawn interest from the Trump administration, though Zambia has accused the U.S. of tying critical minerals access to a proposed $2 billion health deal between the countries, an allegation that the U.S. has rejected.

Opposition alliance poses strongest threat

Hichilema won a presidential election in 2021, having lost in five votes before that. The 64-year-old is a former financial services executive but also has a background in farming and is one of the nation’s biggest cattle ranchers.

He has led the United Party for National Development since 2006.

There are 14 presidential candidates in total, but analysts say Hichilema’s strongest challenger will likely be 55-year-old Brian Mundubile, a law graduate and the leader of an opposition group of parties called the Tonse Alliance.

Economics and free elections

While inflation has dropped and the value of Zambia’s currency, the Kwacha, has improved under Hichilema, ordinary Zambians bemoan high food and energy costs. Some critics say the macroeconomic stability hasn’t benefited most people in the landlocked country of some 22 million.

Hichilema promised this week to build more schools, health facilities and roads, and to address electricity shortages and the cost of living.

Another criticism of Hichilema is that he has squeezed dissent in a country where elections have been largely peaceful.

The Tonse Alliance accused Hichilema’s government of being behind a law enforcement agency raid on its offices days before the election that saw vehicles, communication equipment and other items seized. The alliance alleged it was politically motivated to disrupt its campaigning.

How fierce Zambian politics can get

Zambia gained independence from Britain in 1964 and was a one-party state from 1973 to 1991. Since then, several parties and political alliances have won and lost power.

Hichilema’s rivalry with his predecessor, the late former President Edgar Lungu, was especially bitter and continued even after Lungu’s death last year. When Lungu was president, then-opposition leader Hichilema was imprisoned for four months in 2017 on charges of treason after Lungu alleged Hichilema’s motorcade didn’t gave way to his on a road.

Lungu claimed he was effectively put under house arrest during Hichilema’s first term.

Lungu died in South Africa in June 2025, prompting a macabre yearlong battle between Hichilema’s government and Lungu’s family over where the body should be buried. The government insisted it be repatriated for a state funeral, while the family said one of Lungu’s last wishes was that he not have a state funeral presided over by Hichilema.

The dispute went to South Africa’s Supreme Court of Appeal, which ruled in favor of the family, though burial plans have still not been announced.

How the election works

Voters in the one-day election on Thursday will also choose lawmakers in Parliament and local government councilors. Around 8 million people are registered to vote.

Zambia’s presidential election works on the 50% plus one system where a candidate has to get an outright majority to win. That raises the possibility of a second round of voting if no candidate gets more than 50% of the vote first time around. MDT/AP