Casino revenue growth forecast slashed by Citi amid US tariff impact

Citigroup has sharply reduced its 2025 growth forecast for Macau casino gross gaming revenue (GGR), citing disappointing Chinese New Year (CNY) gambling volume and the implementation of US tariffs on Chinese exports.

The banking group now predicts a 1% year-on-year decline in first-half GGR, compared to its earlier 7% growth forecast.

January GGR averaged MOP589 million daily, falling short of expectations, while the first five days of February saw daily GGR of approximately MOP900 million.

The Chinese New Year Golden Week, typically a peak period, was marred by last-minute trip cancellations among high-value mainland players, many of whom are factory owners in export sector, coinciding with the U.S. tariffs imposed in the beginning of February.

“These two data points turn us more cautious on near-term GGR trends,” said Citi analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau in a GGRAsia report.

They noted that the implementation of U.S. tariffs on February 1 coincided with the end of the Chinese New Year Golden Week, dampening gaming demand.

Looking ahead, the analysts expressed some optimism, suggesting that player sentiment may begin to recover in the second half of 2025 as the effects of the tariffs dissipate. They highlighted upcoming events, such as a concert by Hong Kong singer Jacky Cheung in June, as potential catalysts for increasing demand.

Citi projects that GGR for the second half of 2025 could reach MOP119.5 billion, which would imply a daily run rate of approximately MOP650 million. This forecast suggests a 6% year-on-year growth, although analysts caution that the comparison base from the previous year is relatively low. Victoria Chan