Hungary’s Orbán to seek Trump’s blessing to keep buying Russian oil

Trump greets Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban

When Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán visits President Donald Trump in the White House today, his priority will be convincing the U.S. administration to turn a blind eye to Hungary’s dogged commitment to buying Russian oil, a potential test of how deep the affinity goes between the two friendly leaders.

Orbán, once an outspoken opponent of Russia’s dominance of Hungary during the Cold War, has in the last decade made a dramatic shift toward Moscow that has baffled his opponents and many earlier allies.

Widely considered Russian President Vladimir Putin’s most reliable advocate in the European Union, Orbán has maintained warm relations with the Kremlin despite its war against Ukraine. He has also curried favor with Trump and his MAGA movement, which views Hungary as a shining example of conservative nationalism despite the erosion of its democratic institutions.

But now, as Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine approaches its fourth anniversary, Orbán is under increasing pressure from both Brussels and Washington to end Hungary’s reliance on Russian oil, a resource seen as critical for funding Moscow’s war.

Last month, the Trump administration levied sanctions on Russian state-affiliated energy giants Lukoil and Rosneft that could expose their foreign buyers — like India, China and Hungary — to secondary sanctions.

Yet the Hungarian leader hopes his personal relationship with Trump will score him points at Friday’s meeting, the first between the two leaders since Trump retook office in January. In comments to state radio last week, Orbán made clear he would try to “make the Americans understand” that Hungary needs a carve out for its continued purchases of Russian energy.

Orbán says no alternatives to Russian oil

At the heart of Orbán’s appeals for an exemption is his claim that Hungary, landlocked in the heart of Central Europe, has no viable alternatives to Russian crude, and that replacing those supplies would trigger an economic collapse. Critics dispute that claim.

Yet Trump has indicated Orbán’s arguments may have stuck a chord. In October, he called Orbán a “very great leader,” and said Hungary was “sort of stuck” when it came to Russian oil purchases. Trump said Hungary has “one pipeline” — the Druzhba, which delivers Russian crude through Ukraine and into Central Europe.

However, another pipeline, the Adria, which originates at Croatia’s Adriatic coast, also delivers non-Russian crude to Hungary’s main refinery — a route Orbán’s critics and the Croatian oil transport company argue could handle Hungary’s energy needs.

Daniel Fried, an Atlantic Council fellow who is a former U.S. ambassador to Poland, dismissed Orbán’s complaints that Hungary doesn’t have other options for energy.

“Don’t insult everyone’s intelligence,” Fried said, noting that Poland, also in Central Europe, spent years preparing for alternatives. “Hungary has done none of this. They’ve whined and complained.”

While most EU member states sharply reduced or halted imports of Russian fossil fuels after Moscow invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, Hungary and neighboring Slovakia have maintained their pipeline deliveries. Hungary has even increased the share of Russian oil in its energy mix from 61% before the war to around 86%, according to a report by independent researchers.

Peter Rough, a senior fellow and the director of the Center on Europe and Eurasia at the Washington-based Hudson Institute, said that though Hungary has enjoyed a competitive advantage over other European states by procuring Russian supplies, “Clearly, President Trump’s decision to wield the sanctions hammer against Russian oil … has gotten Hungary’s attention.”

“Budapest has resisted diversifying its energy mix for years, despite persistent urging,” Rough said. “The alarm bells must now be ringing in Budapest.”

Budapest summit?

In October, Trump announced he would meet again with Putin for negotiations on ending the war in Ukraine, and that Hungary’s capital would provide the venue. The decision was seen as a win for Orbán, and as an attempt by Trump to provide a political boost for his ally who in April is set to face the most challenging election of his last 15 years in power.

Orbán praised the decision to hold the meeting in Budapest, and suggested the choice could be seen as a “political achievement.”

But the meeting was soon scuttled, with Trump saying he didn’t want a “wasted meeting” with Putin, who showed no signs of backing off his maximalist demands on the war.

Yet officials in Budapest are still hopeful a Trump-Putin meeting could materialize. On Wednesday, Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó said in a press briefing that high on the agenda for Friday’s meeting “will be the possibility of making peace in Ukraine.”

“If U.S.-Russian preparatory work is successful, Hungary is ready to host a peace summit,” he said.

Hungary, a NATO member, has refused to supply neighboring Ukraine with weapons or allow their transfer across its borders. Orbán has threatened to veto certain EU sanctions against Moscow, and held up the bloc’s adoption of major funding packages to Kyiv.

Orbán has often taken an adversarial stance toward Ukraine and its president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy. JUSTIN SPIKE, BUDAPEST, MDT/AP