Wynn shares hit 52-week low as Macau recovery fades, analysts say

Wynn Resorts Ltd. shares have fallen to a 52-week low as softer-than-expected Macau gaming demand and uncertainty surrounding the company’s casino resort under construction in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) weigh on investor sentiment.

The stock has declined 14% over the past month, compared with a 2% drop in the S&P 500, JPMorgan Securities analysts Daniel Politzer, Samuel Nielsen and Michael Hirsh wrote in a report Monday.

“Macau industry GGR [gross gaming revenue] has been softer than expected post World Cup,” the analysts wrote.

As highlighted in the second quarter, the FIFA World Cup, which ran from June 11 to July 19, diverted some high-value customers from Macau casinos during the second quarter, particularly in the premium-mass and VIP segments.

Although gaming activity initially appeared to rebound after the tournament, JPMorgan said the recovery was weaker and shorter-lived than anticipated. “The post World Cup demand rebound appears short-lived,” JPMorgan wrote.

Meanwhile, other analysts had previously pointed to signs of improvement. Citi estimated that Macau’s average daily gross gaming revenue in the first nine days of August was MOP733 million, about 12% above July’s daily average.

Seaport Research Partners, following meetings with executives at Wynn Resorts and MGM Resorts International, said earlier that a revenue recovery was “evident” after the World Cup-related slowdown.

In August, Macau’s GGR rose 8.1% from the previous month’s MOP20.26 billion to MOP21.89 billion. However, the figure was still 1.2% lower than in August a year earlier. JPMorgan said the month-over-month increase largely reflected a weak July comparison rather than a sustained improvement in underlying demand.

For September, early forecasts from analysts have added to uncertainty.

UBS estimated that average daily GGR reached MOP633 million during the first six days of September, about 11.5% below August’s daily average, though roughly 4% above the same period last year.

Wynn’s Macau expansion plans

Wynn Resorts is preparing a major expansion of Wynn Palace that includes an event center, theater and the US$950 million Enclave hotel tower. The tower is expected to include 432 suites.

Management said last month that construction on the event center and theater would begin “in the coming weeks,” after the Macau government approved revised land-use terms in July. Construction on the hotel tower is expected to begin before the end of 2026.

UAE concerns weigh on valuation

JPMorgan said Wynn Resorts was trading at 9.7 times estimated 2027 enterprise value to EBITDA, broadly in line with its three-year average of 9.8 times. The valuation appears to assign “little/no equity value” to Wynn’s UAE project, the bank said.

Wynn Al Marjan Island, in Ras Al Khaimah, is scheduled to open in September 2027. Wynn Resorts is developing the project with local partners Marjan LLC and RAK Hospitality Holding LLC and holds a 40% equity interest.

While day-to-day conditions in Dubai have “largely returned to normal,” JPMorgan said heightened tensions in the Middle East have raised concerns about whether the resort will open on schedule, its performance at launch and the pace at which it can build business.

The analysts said investors’ perception of regional stability had deteriorated amid renewed tensions, helping drive up crude oil prices and adding another layer of uncertainty to Wynn’s outlook.