Economy expected to grow 5% in first half as tourism recovery continues

[Photo: Renato Marques]

Macau’s economy is expected to maintain moderate growth in the first half of 2026, supported by the continued recovery of tourism and steady growth in visitor arrivals, according to the Macau Economic Association (MEA)

The association’s latest economic climate index report estimated that Macau’s gross domestic product (GDP) reached MOP209.5 billion in the first six months of the year, representing real year-on-year growth of about 5%. The figure would bring the city’s economic recovery to around 90% of the level recorded in the same period in 2019.

The association said the tourism and leisure sector experienced a temporary slowdown in June, partly due to the impact of the FIFA World Cup, with gross gaming revenue (GGR) falling to MOP18.5 billion, the lowest monthly figure recorded so far this year. It described the decline as within expectations.

Meanwhile, domestic demand and consumer confidence remained relatively weak, with both visitors and residents adopting more cautious spending habits. The association noted that the loan-to-deposit ratio for local residents at banks fell further to 43.5%, suggesting that while market liquidity remains sufficient, demand for credit continues to be subdued.

In the report, the MEA also mentioned that Macau’s economic performance in the second half of the year will largely depend on the development of the integrated tourism and leisure sector, as well as economic conditions in mainland China.

Despite ongoing uncertainties, the association said the city’s economy is expected to maintain a stable growth trajectory. Based on its analysis and forecasts, the city’s economic climate index for the second half of 2026 is projected to range between 6.2 and 6.5 points, remaining within the “stable” category.

The association added that strengthening tourism-related consumption and supporting local economic activity will remain key factors in sustaining growth momentum.