Economic prosperity stable, mixed indicators

The Macau Economic Association (MEA) has released the latest trend of the Macau Economic Prosperity Index, revealing a “stable” overall performance despite a “polarized” distribution of indicators.

During October and November this year, the 13 indicators in the Macau Economic Prosperity Index showed a “polarized” distribution. On the one hand, Macau’s money supply M2 increased 7.5% year-on-year in October to a record high of MOP782.8 billion, suggesting ample liquidity in the financial system. Additionally, the strong recovery of tourism-related industries has driven the job market, with total employment continuing to increase and the unemployment rate remaining low at 1.7% for many months.

On the other hand, affected by changes in visitor structure and consumption patterns, as well as the outflow of local consumption, the growth of local retail and catering consumption has barely remained at the “stable” level. The mainland consumer confidence index and the stock prices of the six major integrated tourism and leisure companies are still “sluggish.”

Overall, Macau’s economic prosperity index in October and November were 6.6 and 6.4 points respectively, indicating a “stable” level. The index is expected to remain around 6.4-6.5 points from December this year to February next year.

Looking ahead, Macau’s full-year GDP is expected to grow about 9% in real terms year-on-year, recovering to approximately 86.5% of the pre-pandemic level in 2019. Although the global economic outlook remains uncertain, international organizations and rating agencies are relatively optimistic about Macau’s economic prospects, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicting GDP growth rates of 10.6% and 7.3% for 2024 and 2025, respectively.

Policies to benefit Macau continue to be implemented, such as the “Group In and Group Out” policy for mainland residents to travel to and from Macau and Qinzhou, as well as the addition of many mainland cities to Hong Kong and Macau for free travel.

Furthermore, Zhuhai and Hengqin will implement the “one trip per week” and “multiple trips per visa” policies for tourism to Macau starting next year, further strengthening personnel economic and trade exchanges between the two places.