Gaming scholar forecasts GGR to only recover to 70% of 2019

Local gross gaming revenue (GGR) will never return to the pre-pandemic levels and, at most, will only recover to 70% of 2019 levels, Professor Zheng Zhonglu, head of the Center for Gaming and Tourism Studies at Macao Polytechnic University, told the media at the Responsible Gaming Association’s 10th anniversary celebration.

Zheng cited several studies showing Macau’s gaming industry will only be able to recover 50% to 60% of the MOP292.46 billion reached in 2019. He noted, “the more optimistic studies suggest a maximum of 70%.” He said the industry, “will not be able to fully recover from the pandemic.”

The most optimistic forecast would put local casinos’ future GGR between MOP146 billion and MOP200 billion, figures like those reported 2009 to 2011.

Zheng noted the main cause has been the mainland authorities’ crackdown on illegal gambling and stricter control measures on capital flow, rather than the pandemic itself.

The academic also anticipates that, consequently, the industry will need fewer casino workers in the future, forecasting staff cuts may follow the fall in revenue forecasted, representing a potential staff cut of up to 50%.

Zheng said the issue is concerning and will demand a negotiated solution between the government and society to avoid a major unbalance.

Asked if this means the current concessionaires have too many workers, Zheng said the forecast does not aim to say there are too many casino workers now. He said it highlights that, in the future, the sector may need far fewer workers than previously thought.