MGM Resorts buyout bid raises questions over Macau unit and Japan project

[AP Photo]

A proposed takeover of MGM Resorts International by its largest shareholder, U.S. conglomerate People Inc, could reshape the casino operator’s global portfolio, with analysts focusing on potential implications for its Macau business and Japan expansion plans.

People Inc, formerly known as IAC Inc, has submitted a non-binding all-cash offer of USD48.30 per share for MGM Resorts, valuing the company at more than USD18 billion, including around USD6.4 billion in net debt. If completed, the deal would leave People Inc with a 50.1% controlling stake.

Market observers say attention is now shifting to MGM Resorts’ international holdings, particularly its 56% stake in MGM China Holdings Ltd and its equity participation in the Osaka integrated resort project in Japan.

Research firm Seaport Research Partners said MGM China could emerge as a key asset in any post-deal restructuring. The brokerage recently lifted its price target on MGM China, citing its strong market position in Macau and what it described as an attractive valuation.

Analyst Vitaly Umansky suggested that a future divestment of the Macau business could unlock shareholder value and potentially help finance broader strategic priorities under new ownership, including expansion in digital gaming.

CBRE Equity Research estimated MGM Resorts’ stake in MGM China is worth about USD3.3 billion, generating annual cash flow of roughly USD316 million through dividends and management fees. Analysts John DeCree and Max Marsh said the Macau stake could be partially or fully monetised to support acquisition financing or other capital needs.

They added that potential buyers could include MGM China’s existing major shareholder Pansy Ho Chiu King, or other Macau-based gaming operators with sufficient financial capacity, though regulatory approval would be a key factor.

Japan is also seen as a strategic consideration. MGM Resorts holds a 42.5% stake in the USD9.5 billion MGM Osaka integrated resort, scheduled to open in 2030, with remaining equity commitments estimated at USD2.3 billion.

Seaport noted that any new controlling shareholder could reassess exposure to both Macau and Japan, potentially recycling capital into online gaming and the BetMGM platform.

Other potential investors in the Osaka project could include major global casino operators, although any ownership changes would require government consent and compliance with existing development agreements.

Analysts said the proposed ownership structure – combining majority control by People Inc with participation from rollover and minority investors – could provide flexibility to selectively divest international assets while maintaining MGM Resorts’ core U.S. operations and digital gaming strategy.