Analysts hail June’s GGR as a ‘really, really strong beat’

JP Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Ltd hailed June gaming revenue as a “really, really strong beat,” after the city posted MOP21.06 billion in gross gaming revenue (GGR), significantly surpassing the already revised-up consensus of a 9% year-on-year increase.

The figures, released Tuesday by the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ), represent a 19% year-on-year surge and signal solid momentum heading into the second half of the year. It also marked one of the highest monthly totals since the pandemic began.

Despite June typically being a slower month for the industry, GGR was just 0.6% lower than May’s figure. When adjusted for fewer calendar days, the daily average actually rose to MOP702 million, up from MOP684 million in May – further underlining the strength of the sector’s recovery.

“June’s daily run-rate was even higher than May’s, despite typical seasonality showing declines month-on-month,” analysts DS Kim and Selina Li highlighted in a note Tuesday.

The surge marks the second-highest monthly total since the pandemic began, trailing only May’s record-breaking MOP21.19 billion.

Key to the upswing were high-profile entertainment events and strong performance in the premium-mass gaming segment.

Citigroup analysts attributed much of the growth to a series of concerts by Hong Kong pop icon Jacky Cheung, held at Galaxy Arena within the Galaxy Macau complex. Cheung’s residency, consisting of nine shows, drew tens of thousands of visitors, boosting foot traffic and gaming activity.

The arena also hosted South Korean superstar G-Dragon for three concerts in early June, further driving casino activity.

“Two years ago, Jacky Cheung’s concert was a major reason why Macau’s GGR in June – usually the slowest month – was on par with May, and it looks like he did it again this year,” said Citigroup analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau.

They added that the strong GGR figures “echo our positive findings in recent table surveys and testify to players’ passion for gaming despite geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty.”

JP Morgan’s on-the-ground checks confirmed that “high-end segments, direct VIP, and ultra-premium mass performed particularly well,” with VIP gaming estimated to have grown faster than the mass market play in the second quarter.

First half and second quarter growth

According to the DICJ’s figures, Macau’s cumulative GGR reached MOP118.77 billion, a 4.4% increase over the same period in 2024 – though still about 20.5% below pre-pandemic levels.
The second quarter alone posted an 8.3% year-on-year rise to nearly MOP61.12 billion, the highest quarterly total in over five years.

JP Morgan analysts expect the momentum to continue, forecasting an EBITDA margin improvement and noting that “2Q25 will mark the first quarter in a long while to beat Street forecasts and historical seasonality.”

The analysts anticipate July’s GGR growth in the high single digits, supported by additional concerts and events scheduled for the month.

Looking ahead, Seaport Research Partners projects July GGR growth of 10.2% year-on-year, tempered by a slight month-on-month decline due to seasonality and potential weather disruptions.

Senior analyst Vitaly Umansky of Seaport Research Partners has raised the full-year 2025 GGR growth forecast to 5.6%, with stronger gains anticipated in the second half of the year, driven by increased marketing efforts and improving consumer trends in China.

Citigroup expects July’s GGR to grow 5%, buoyed by more concerts from Jacky Cheung at the Galaxy Arena, Aaron Kwok’s seven shows at the Studio City Event Center, and Sandy Lam’s series of four concerts at the Venetian Arena.

The strong revenue figures sent shares of Macau-focused casino operators soaring. Wynn Resorts, Las Vegas Sands, and MGM Resorts all rallied Tuesday, with Wynn and Las Vegas Sands up 8% and MGM gaining 7%, reflecting investor confidence in Macau’s gaming recovery.