GGR to grow over 9% in 2H, says Seaport Research

The city’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) is expected to grow more than 9% year over year in the second half of 2025, buoyed by improving market sentiment and stimulus, according to Seaport Research Partners.

Vitaly Umansky, senior analyst at Seaport, said in a note yesterday, “Growth has reaccelerated in the last few months.”

He pointed out that while concerns about China’s macroeconomic outlook remain, “improving sentiment and stimulus” are likely to outweigh those headwinds.

He said second-quarter results for Macau are unlikely to hold many surprises, as the quarter already turned out better than expected.

“While 2025 had started softly in Macau, our expectation for a summer pickup and strength in the second half is bearing fruit,” added the analyst.

Seaport now forecasts full-year 2025 GGR growth at 7%, building on a mild start to the year with a summer pickup and strong H2 performance.

Seaport projects sustained GGR growth of 7% annually in the coming years, which it believes will drive a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9% in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA).

“We continue to see Macau as a secular long-term growth market,” Umansky added.

“Longer term, market share shifts will benefit Sands China and Galaxy, while smaller operators should see share loss,” he said. This shift could accelerate if the base-mass market recovers faster than currently forecast.

Seaport’s bullish outlook also includes growth in Singapore’s casino sector and “the opportunity in the United Arab Emirates” for Wynn Resorts.

This refers to Resorts World Sentosa, operated by Genting Singapore Ltd., and Marina Bay Sands, owned by Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS), the parent company of Macau’s Sands China.

Both Singapore properties are currently undergoing multibillion-dollar renovations and expansions.

In addition, Wynn Resorts, which owns Macau operator Wynn Macau Ltd., is developing the Wynn Al Marjan Island casino resort in Ras Al Khaimah, United Arab Emirates. The company aims to open the property in early 2027.

Umansky also downgraded MGM China (MCHVF) from “Buy” to “Neutral.”