Space sustainability, low-altitude economy in focus at PowerHour

The future of space and the low-altitude economy took center stage at an Australian Chamber of Commerce Macau (AustCham) PowerHour luncheon on Thursday, as two speakers highlighted both commercial opportunities and rising systemic risks.

The event, held at Galaxy Macau, also briefly underscored engagement between Australia and the Greater Bay Area. A consular representative, Ted Goener, said “the Australia-China relationship is in a good place,” describing ties as “positive, stable,” despite areas of disagreement.

Professor Quentin Parker, an astrophysicist and former director of the University of Hong Kong’s Laboratory for Space Research, and Professor Aaron Finley of the Macau University of Science and Technology (MUST) outlined how aerospace innovation is reshaping industries from orbit to urban airspace.

During his presentation, Parker warned that the global space economy, projected to reach USD2 trillion by 2035, faces mounting risks from orbital congestion.

“The new space economy is predicted to be worth about $2 trillion by 2035, assuming that the ecosystem still remains intact […] That’s a big question,” the astronomer said. “There is this important lower-altitude economy, space economy. It’s integrated. There’s inter-reliance and interdependence,” Parker added, emphasizing the role of satellites in communications, finance, and environmental monitoring.

Parker also introduced S3+1, a Hong Kong-based international NGO focused on space sustainability, built around safety, science, and sustainability, with space as the fourth pillar.

The initiative was co-founded by Parker and Professor Michael Mainelli, the 695th Lord Mayor of London (2023–2024) and current president of the London Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

“We have a key mission … to build a safe, secure, and sustainable future for urban space alike for all mankind,” Parker said.

As detailed by Parker, a central concern for the astronomer is the Kessler syndrome – a cascade of collisions that could render low Earth orbit unusable.

“If we do nothing about space debris, within 10 years the Kessler syndrome could start,” he said. “Cascading, catastrophic collapse of the entire low Earth orbit ecosystem.”

According to the astronomer, more than 18,000 satellites have been launched, with about 12,500 still in orbit and only around 8,000 operational, while the remainder – along with millions of debris fragments – continue to increase collision risks.

Space junk includes discarded rocket bodies, obsolete and damaged satellites, and fragments down to nanoparticle size. Space junk is dangerous because it’s orbiting at almost unimaginable speeds.

“A particle the size of a centimeter has the explosive power of a grenade because it’s moving at eight kilometers per second,” Parker said.

Parker warned that satellite launches are accelerating faster than mitigation efforts, with implications for climate monitoring, which relies heavily on space-based data.

“We need governance, we need regulation, we need international cooperation,” he said.

“If that all goes, it’s game over,” he said.

Rise of the low-altitude economy

In a separate presentation, Professor Finley described the low-altitude economy – covering activity below 1,000 meters – as a fast-growing ecosystem integrating transport, logistics, AI, and digital infrastructure.

The MUST professor said China and the United States are leading development, though each faces different constraints, including regulatory barriers in China and higher production costs in the U.S.

Finley also highlighted that China has designated the sector a strategic emerging industry, with output exceeding RMB500 billion in 2023 and expected to surpass RMB1 trillion by 2026.

“The value comes not simply in flying the aircraft; it’s transforming these traditional industries,” Finley said.

Finley also pointed to emerging use cases in developing markets, including tourism and aviation access in countries such as Sri Lanka and Timor-Leste.

“One country that we’re working with is East Timor, because of this Portuguese-speaking network, and then we had a lovely discussion a couple weeks ago with the university that visited Macau, and we’re hoping to have more collaboration with East Timor,” the UST professor said.

Finley said the Greater Bay Area is emerging as a key hub, with Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Hong Kong, and Macau advancing pilot programs and infrastructure.

Hong Kong has launched 38 pilot projects and is developing supporting infrastructure such as vertiports. Macau, he said, is positioning itself as a research and cooperation platform.

Both speakers emphasized the interdependence between orbital and low-altitude systems. “We’re in a pivotal moment in humanity,” Parker said. “We’re transitioning from space to integrate it into economic infrastructure.”