US casino operators face rising geopolitical and economic risks: Fitch

U.S. casino operators in Macau are facing mounting geopolitical risks amid intensifying trade tensions between China and the United States, according to a recent report released by Fitch Ratings.

Fitch highlighted that operators including Las Vegas Sands, Wynn Resorts, and MGM Resorts International, who derive a substantial portion of their revenue from Macau, could be vulnerable to retaliatory measures as bilateral tariff disputes deepen.

Las Vegas Sands generated 63% of its 2024 revenue from Macau, followed by Wynn at 52%, and MGM at 23%.

Despite the rising concerns, Fitch stated there are no current indications that Beijing is targeting U.S.-owned gaming firms in Macau. The sector contributes around 80% of the city’s tax revenue, with U.S. operators responsible for over half of its gross gaming revenue.
“The U.S. operators have also pledged material investments over the next 10 years to develop non-gaming attractions in Macau,” Fitch noted.

Historically, China’s responses to foreign corporate conflicts have centered on regulatory scrutiny rather than direct bans.

While a license non-renewal scenario post-2032 is considered a worst-case outcome, Fitch views this as highly unlikely within the current forecast horizon.

However, if U.S.-China relations deteriorate further, Fitch warns that forced divestments of Macau operations could become more plausible.

In addition to geopolitical risks, a weaker economic outlook in China is expected to weigh on gaming revenue. Fitch revised China’s 2025 GDP growth forecast down to 3.9%, while slightly raising consumption growth expectations to 3.3%.

Year-to-date gaming revenue in Macau has remained flat, falling short of early-year growth expectations.

The report noted that U.S.-based entities and their Macau subsidiaries maintain separate debt structures, with no cross-guarantees, and are legally ring-fenced.

Fitch assesses the parent companies as stronger entities under its rating criteria.

Fitch emphasized that healthy balance sheets and strong liquidity offer some protection. Las Vegas Sands maintains notable ratings headroom, supported by robust cash flows.
Wynn and MGM also retain adequate financial flexibility at current rating levels.