Citigroup raises July GGR forecast to MOP20 billion

Citigroup has raised its gross gaming revenue (GGR) forecast for July, citing a strong start to the month driven by major entertainment events. The investment bank increased its estimate by 2.6%–from MOP19.5 billion to MOP20 billion.

The revision follows an early rise in gaming revenue in the first six days of July, during which daily GGR grew about 30% year-over-year, reaching approximately MOP717 million, according to Citigroup analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau.

Total GGR within this six-day period reached MOP4.3 billion, a 2% increase over June’s daily average of MOP702 million, which had already surpassed expectations.

Citigroup attributed the early July surge primarily to the final three concerts of Hong Kong Cantopop icon Jacky Cheung, held over the past weekend at Galaxy Arena.

The bank had also previously linked June’s 19% year-over-year GGR growth to Cheung’s concert series, underscoring the significant impact of entertainment events on Macau’s gaming sector.

Despite the strong start, Citigroup projects a more moderate daily GGR average of about MOP628 million (USD77.5 million) for the remainder of July.

While other major concerts are scheduled this month, including Aaron Kwok at Studio City and Sandy Lam at Venetian Arena–analysts expect GGR growth to slow once Cheung’s series concludes.

Market segment analysis reveals mixed trends: VIP volumes remained largely flat month-on-month, while mass market GGR increased between 2% and 4%.

Notably, higher-than-normal VIP hold rates also contributed to the overall revenue uplift.

If Citigroup’s MOP20 billion July forecast is realized, it would represent an 8% year-over-year increase and reach approximately 82% of July 2019’s pre-pandemic GGR levels.

First-half 2025 GGR rose 4.4% year-over-year to MOP118.8 billion.