CLSA lowers 2026 revenue outlook amid weaker first-half performance

Macau gross gaming revenue (GGR) growth outlook for 2026 has been revised downward by CLSA, which expects a slower recovery following weaker-than-expected results in recent months.

The brokerage now forecasts GGR will increase 2.3% year-on-year in 2026 to MOP253.2 billion, reducing its previous estimate by 2 percentage points. The revised projection is also below the broader market consensus, with analysts warning that industry earnings expectations may face further adjustments.

CLSA said the downgrade reflects a weaker June performance, when GGR declined 12% year-on-year, a trend it expects to continue into the first half of July. The brokerage estimates July gaming revenue will fall 12% from a year earlier to MOP19.5 billion, while second-half GGR is projected to decrease 2% to MOP126.3 billion.

Macau recorded GGR of MOP61 billion in the second quarter, representing a marginal 0.1% decline compared with the same period last year. Average daily revenue during the quarter stood at about MOP671 million, around 8% lower than in the first quarter. CLSA noted that market checks indicated weaker-than-usual VIP gaming results during much of the quarter.

The downgrade follows a mixed picture in Macau’s tourism recovery, with visitor numbers improving but spending patterns showing changes.

Visitor arrivals in April and May increased 7% year-on-year to 6.93 million, exceeding 2019 levels. However, the proportion of overnight visitors declined, suggesting shorter visits among some travelers. Despite this, spending among overnight visitors remained resilient, with GGR generated per overnight visitor rising 7% year-on-year.