JP Morgan: Gaming revenue surges ‘unexpectedly’ after Golden Week

Concessionaires saw an unexpected surge last week, with gross gaming revenue (GGR) hitting MOP743 million daily, a 25% increase from the previous week’s MOP593 million per day, according to JP Morgan.

The rebound followed a softer-than-anticipated Golden Week holiday period, with JP Morgan estimating total GGR for the first 19 days of October at nearly MOP14.9 billion (USD1.86 billion), equating to an average daily figure of MOP781 million ($97.7 million).

In a Monday memo, the investment bank described the third week of October as showing a “surprising rebound” in gaming revenue after the traditional holiday slump.

JP Morgan analysts DS Kim, Selina Li, and Lindsey Qian attributed the weak Golden Week performance to several unusual factors, including Typhoon Matmo, the timing of the Mid-Autumn Festival, and the scheduling of the F1 Singapore Grand Prix – all coinciding during the holiday period.

“We continue to think the weak Golden Week performance was a blip rather than a trend,” stated the analysts.

Following this rebound, the analysts have revised their outlook upward for October’s GGR, initially projected to grow between 3% and 6% year-on-year.

“We’ve adjusted October GGR to +3% to 6% year-on-year after Golden Week, but this probably carries upside risks now given such a strong – and unexpected – rebound last week.”

JP Morgan’s forecast also highlights a strong outlook into early 2026, projecting GGR growth in the “low teens.”

The investment bank estimates this will reflect positively on casino earnings, with a 10% year-on-year increase in EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) anticipated for Q4 2025 and a further 13% growth forecast for the first quarter of 2026.

“In any event, recall that easy comps kick in from December, where we expect mid-teens growth in GGR,” the analysts remarked.