Seaport expects GGR to grow 8.6% despite seasonal fluctuations

Macau’s gaming sector is expected to see solid full-year growth in 2025 despite some anticipated slowing in the final quarter, according to Seaport Research Partners. The firm forecasts an 8.6% year-on-year rise in gross gaming revenue (GGR), signaling a cautious optimism after a slow start to the year.

Senior analyst Vitaly Umansky noted in a memo Sunday, “While 2025 started off softly in Macau, our expectation for a summer pickup and strength in the second half has been bearing fruit.”

The analyst reiterated a positive long-term market outlook, writing, “We forecast Macau GGR to grow 8.6% – in U.S. dollar terms, 8.3% in Macau patacas – in 2025, with third-quarter growth of 13% and fourth quarter at 12%, and 7% annual growth in 2026 and 2027.”

Despite “recent softness in September – due to typhoon-related disruption – and a softer start in October – due to several one-off factors,” Umansky said these issues “do not change” Seaport’s growth thesis for the rest of 2025 or the long term.

Data from Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau show that in 2024, full-year GGR surpassed MOP226.78 billion. This year, through September, accumulated gross revenue reached MOP181.3 billion, up 7.1% from MOP169.4 billion for the same period in 2024.

Commenting on market share trends, the analyst highlighted, “Longer term, market share shifts would likely benefit Sands [China Ltd] and Galaxy [Entertainment Group Ltd], while smaller operators may see share losses. This could be more pronounced if base mass recovery is stronger than we currently forecast, which would also see higher overall growth.”

The analyst also drew attention to Sands China’s parent company, Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS), which continues to perform strongly thanks to its flagship property in Singapore, Marina Bay Sands. There, EBITDA surged by more than 60%, reaching approximately USD670 million.

With LVS shifting its strategic focus away from pursuing new projects in the U.S., including abandoned bids for developments in New York and Thailand, its Asian assets have become the primary drivers of its earnings growth. Seaport described the Singapore market as “undervalued by investors,” projecting that it will continue to outperform market expectations for the remainder of 2025.

Regarding the quarter ending September 30, Umansky observed it was likely there was a “quarter-on-quarter increase in player reinvestment in mass, which should suppress margins.”