CLSA: GGR set to grow moderately after strong May

Macau’s casino sector posted a stronger-than-expected finish in May, but CLSA analysts expect the “solid” growth to soften in the coming months as tougher comparisons and seasonal factors weigh on momentum.

According to data from the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ), gross gaming revenue (GGR) rose 6.7% year over year in May to MOP22.61 billion (USD2.8 billion).

The May result slightly exceeded market expectations and was broadly in line with CLSA’s forecast of 6.6% growth. Revenue also increased 13.7% from April, extending gains seen earlier this year.

In a research note, CLSA said the monthly performance was supported by a late surge in activity. Daily revenue averaged MOP783 million in the final six days of May, about 9% higher than the MOP716 million recorded in the first 25 days. The brokerage attributed the pickup in part to “normalized” win rates.

Adjusted for the number of days, May’s daily average GGR reached MOP729 million, up 10% from April’s daily average GGR of MOP663 million.

However, despite the solid May performance, CLSA expects growth to moderate starting in June.

The brokerage forecasts that GGR in June will likely decline by 0.65% year over year to MOP20.9 billion, implying a daily run rate of about MOP698 million. This estimate is broadly in line with Bloomberg consensus, which points to a roughly 1% contraction.

In their note, CLSA cited a higher comparison base and external factors as key reasons for the expected slowdown. The FIFA World Cup, running from June 11 to July 19 across North America, was cited as likely to divert attention and spending among some high-end players. The brokerage also noted a “rising propensity” for premium-mass players to visit Macau during off-peak weeks, which could contribute to a stronger tail end to holiday periods.

For the first five months of 2026, accumulated gross revenue from gaming rose 10.9% year over year to MOP108.38 billion, equivalent to 86.2% of pre-pandemic levels in 2019.

CLSA maintained its full-year 2026 growth forecast at 5%, placing it at the lower end of the market consensus range of 5% to 8%.