Pursuit of visitor numbers is driving away high-value tourists

Yuki Lei

Overcrowding during Macau’s peak tourist season has become a persistent concern, with critics accusing tourism authorities of prioritizing visitor numbers over residents’ well-being.

Tourism carrying capacity has become a persistent concern as visitor numbers surge during public holidays in Macau and its neighboring city, Hong Kong.

Although Macau’s overall arrivals have surpassed the 2019 record, the visitor mix has shifted – skewing younger, with more same-day travelers and a growing share of high-value tourism such as MICE and sporting events – leading to a trend toward “cultural and tourism check-ins” and experience-based consumption.

As a result, per capita spending remains below expectations despite the record visitor totals.

Macau has experienced a notable shift in visitor spending patterns similar to Hong Kong’s: tourism, once driven by “eating, shopping, and entertainment,” has shifted toward deeper cultural and experiential activities – a trend that began before the post-pandemic recovery. Official data show a strong rebound in visitor numbers, with cumulative arrivals reaching 39.411 million by year-end – just above the 2019 total of 39.406 million and pushing annual arrivals closer to the 40-million mark.

Despite the strong recovery in visitor numbers, the public has been less persuaded of its benefits, with many media reports using the Chinese saying “wong6 ding1 m4 wong6 coi 旺丁不旺財” – meaning lots of people but little profit – to describe the disconnect between crowds and earnings. Since 2023, businesses have been urged to adjust their strategies and attract tourists with distinctive products and experiences to convert footfall into revenue.

Public debate has intensified: if visitor numbers have recovered, are they really the most important metric – and why does Macau’s tourism industry still struggle to translate crowds into economic recovery?

Official data show Macau recorded a record 40.06 million visitor arrivals in 2025, the Macau Public Security Police Force announced, with total border crossings last year reaching 235 million – a year-on-year increase of 9.8%.

Of those crossings, Macau residents accounted for 36.4%, non-local employees 26.1%, and visitors 33.9%, the latter totaling about 40.06 million. During the five-day period from December 31, 2025, to January 4, 2026, all border checkpoints logged 766,000 inbound visitors; for the period, the force reported 3.807 million total crossings across all ports, including 766,000 inbound and 785,000 outbound movements. Authorities project annual arrivals could reach 41 million in 2026.

The Statistics and Census Service breakdown shows mainland visitors were mainly from nine cities in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area, with Zhuhai residents making up nearly half of inbound arrivals, followed by visitors from Hong Kong and Taiwan.

The data also indicate a rise in same-day visits – up 24.6% year-on-year – as Greater Bay Area tourists increasingly take “half-day” trips to Macau, contributing to a slight fall in the average length of stay to 1.1 days in 2025, down 0.1 days from the previous year.

Despite a rebound in visitor numbers, consumer spending has not returned to 2019 levels, with authorities noting that visitors are increasingly “price-sensitive.”

Total non-gaming spending by visitors rose 6.3% year-on-year to RMB80.12 billion in 2025, yet a new spending pattern appears to be emerging.

As Macau pursues its goal of becoming a “World Tourism and Leisure Center” and promotes non-gaming attractions, non-gaming visitor expenditure in 2025 actually exceeded the full-year total for 2019 by RMB64.077 billion, underscoring a structural shift in tourism revenue even as per capita spending remains muted.